This match turns on whether Beijing can keep reaching Fabio while Buriram keeps feeding its forwards from the wings and second balls. Buriram has shown both wide delivery and a quick pass through to Schimmer. Beijing has created chances from high regains, crosses and loose balls in the box, so the first phase of possession should shape the next one.
Buriram's right-side deliveries found Bissoli and Schimmer against Borneo, and a parried wide-side shot gave Schimmer his equalizer against Rayong. It also found Schimmer directly against Johor. Beijing's last trip to Shanghai Port brought only five shots as the home side held territory and kept its back line busy.
Fabio remains the focal point for Beijing, but coach Nick Montgomery said Zhang Yuning and Uroš Spajić are planned to rest after both started against Qingdao. Zhang supplied Fabio in that match, while Spajić handled central cover. Buriram's recent side included Bissoli, Schimmer and goalkeeper Neil Etheridge, who made a key penalty save against Johor.
I expect Buriram to press its wide arrivals and collect second balls while Beijing looks for Fabio through its changed support group. That gives Buriram a route to keep Beijing defending and to create the better repeat chances. That's why I'm siding with Buriram to win.
