Three games decided by how each team's main route meets the other's weak spot. Akita's three-point volume faces a defence that lets opponents shoot, and Altiri barely press. Kyoto's rebounding edge runs into a Shinshu side that wins the glass. In Brisbane, an Auckland back line that cracks under sustained possession loses the striker who used to relieve it.
Akita against Altiri Chiba is close to a coin flip, but the halves of the matchup lean towards the home side. Akita lose when ball pressure forces turnovers, and Altiri average only about four steals, so that leak should stay shut. Akita take around 32 threes a game, and Altiri have regularly allowed 27-36 attempts and 87 points a game. Altiri's best route is Pardon and Davis on the glass. Sotto is still out, though, and Davis fouled out last time, so that route rests on two bigs with no third behind them. The middle quarters, when Altiri's bench frontcourt thins, should decide it. That's why I'm siding with Akita at home.
Shinshu are 3-9, but the margins tell a different story. Kyoto's big wins came mostly at home, against weaker teams, and through rebounding. Against mid-table sides they won by 1 to 8. Shinshu out-rebounded upper-tier Akita 37-27 and Shiga 41-30, so Kyoto's usual second-chance edge shouldn't be there. Kyoto are also without starting shooter Reo Shibuta and hit just 66.9% at the line, which makes a lead harder to stretch. Shinshu's heavy defeats came on 19-21 turnovers, but they kept it to 12-15 in three of their last four. That's why I'm siding with Shinshu staying close at home.
In the A-League, every meeting between Brisbane and Auckland has finished with two goals, but that came from Auckland's old deep block. Under Pedro Moreira, Auckland have had 38-42% of the ball and conceded 6 in two games, five of them while opponents held possession. Brisbane will have the ball at home: 57% and 14 shots against Perth. Cosgrove's suspension takes away Auckland's aerial out-ball, so the pressure spells should last longer. Bayliss and Brook still break forward against a new Brisbane back line that already gifted Perth a goal. Both boxes should open up, which is why I'm siding with goals in this one.
