Brest's direct play asks their wide runners to gather the ball around Ajorque, while Nice have a familiar central cover and an outlet through Clauss. Alavés can repeatedly deliver from the flanks, with Málaga needing clean first passes to escape their compact shape. The second contact after a cross or clearance is central to both games. A close first half would put extra weight on each side's later supply.
Nice's three central defenders can contest Ajorque's first touch and leave Witsel or Boudaoui to challenge Doumbia for the next ball. Clauss has already found Wahi with an early cross, a useful route against Brest's Tousart and Lloris pairing. Nice's travelling group includes Sanson, while Brest's central absences were already covered by that pairing in the last match. Brest's Angers rout included corner marking errors and a penalty; its Lille attack was much thinner once the game narrowed. That's why I'm siding with Nice to stay level with Brest or finish ahead.
Alavés' Rebbach, Pérez and Novoa can keep sending Boyé deliveries even when the first cross is cleared. The Celta match showed sustained box access, while Málaga have struggled to turn away possession into goals. Martínez, who supplied and scored in Málaga's last game, is missing from the current squad after playing the full match; Muñoz is also out. Málaga can start with extra defensive cover, but Alavés can recycle the next ball and bring fresh width later. That's why I'm siding with an Alavés home win.
