Two NBA games where the market leans hard on the home name and the early-season numbers say the gaps are narrower than they look.
Boston at home against Brooklyn is a game about three-point volume and turnovers. Boston has played three official games with a modest average margin, and it is on the second night of a back-to-back after a 35-point win. Brooklyn leaks points, but two of its three losses were by single digits.
Boston lives on threes and free throws, and Brooklyn gives away turnovers, so a big night is possible. Still, a blowout needs everything to go right, and a team that has just won by 35 often rests starters late. Across the last six meetings Boston won by a huge margin only once. That is why I'm siding with Brooklyn to stay close.
New York against Detroit is a clash between a 0-3 home side and a 3-0 visitor. The Knicks lost all three games by four to nine points while shooting very cold from three, so the record is partly shooting variance. Detroit has a large positive point differential, shoots nearly 48 percent, and has beaten New York in three of the last four meetings.
Detroit's centre is out, which gives the Knicks a rebounding and free-throw route, but the Pistons already won without him in their last game. Their three-point hit rate is hot, yet they do not need to win outright to be in this game. That's why I'm siding with Detroit to stay within the margin.
