Three Sultanlar Ligi matches this round share one shape: the side expected to win does not have the set-by-set dominance to run away with it. Besiktas trade sets with everyone, Galatasaray arrive at Vakifbank short of their outside reception, and Aras and THY have produced identical results against the same opponents. In each match the question is how many sets the stronger side really controls, not who wins.
Besiktas against Goztepe first. Besiktas sit at a steady mid-table level. They took sets off Vakifbank and Fenerbahce, dropped sets to Manisa and Kuzeyboru, and nine of their last ten games went four sets or more. They have swept an opponent once in twenty games, they gave up a two-set lead to Fenerbahce, and they lost set one in two of their last three. Goztepe are a rebuilt side under Arsov with a new opposite, and their level sits between their win over Manisa and a competitive loss to Vakifbank, close to Besiktas. Goztepe's serve and block can push Besiktas' reception, and Besiktas' closing problem keeps the late sets open. That's why I'm siding with Goztepe to take at least one set.
Vakifbank against Galatasaray is a different picture. Vakifbank's attack is intact: Markova, Boskovic and Zehra Gunes, run by Cansu Ozbay. Galatasaray were without Sylla in their last match, with no update since, and had Akimova only on the bench, which leaves Carutasu as their one real finisher against Gunes's block. Vakifbank have dropped two sets in a match only once this season, against Eczacibasi's elite serve, and nothing shows Galatasaray carrying a serve like that. Vakifbank can ease in set three after a two-set lead, but Galatasaray winning two sets in this hall is the long shot. That's why I'm with Vakifbank to win by a clear margin in sets.
Aras Kargo host THY with two evenly matched sides. Both won at Afyon in four sets and both beat Galatasaray in five at home. THY's rebuilt group with Degradi and Lazareva has the higher ceiling for runs, but their sets swing hard: they lost three straight at Kuzeyboru after winning the opener. Aras at home are steady, with bench depth through May and wings who closed tight sets against Galatasaray and at Afyon. THY may well take an early set, but holding that level for three straight sets away from home is the path I see least. That's why I'm siding with Aras to stay in this match on sets.
