Finland are the market's pick here, but I don't think the gap is as wide as the price says. Their big numbers came against San Marino and Malta. Against sides that sit in a block, they have been creating about half a chance per game worth of quality, and the first meeting with Belarus finished goalless with shots almost level.
That first game is the best guide. Finland had the corners and a slight edge in chance quality, but Belarus had two goals disallowed and hit the post, so it was nowhere near one-way traffic. Belarus did get picked apart in Albania, so this isn't a case of an airtight defence. It's more that these two both struggle to create much against organised opposition.
Finland are also without Kairinen through suspension, which takes a little away from the midfield. Belarus, under Goncharenko, have not conceded more than two in any of their last ten. The coach field in the base data was out of date, so I checked it against the preview.
The odds have drifted towards Finland over the last two days, and I couldn't tie that to any news I could find. I didn't treat it as a reason to follow. My read is a low-event game where Finland's edge is smaller than advertised, so I'm siding with the home team.
