Bayern should own more territory and create the larger share of sustained pressure. Dortmund have a workable first pass and a direct receiver who can turn a clearance into a reply. The match may hinge on whether Bayern's first goal is followed by another clean chance before Dortmund can reset.
Olise and Bayern's wide runners can pin Dortmund's wingbacks, with Kane attacking the box and Bayern's counterpress collecting loose balls. Dortmund's Guirassy gives the visitors a direct outlet, and their recent substitute contributions provide another way to reach the box later. Bayern's recent wide winning margins have also depended on opponent-specific events, so a first breakthrough does not establish a repeat margin here.
Neuer, Musiala and Diaz missed Bayern's cup match and remain out, while Kimmich's minutes are uncertain after missing recent games. Dortmund's Can, Konstantelias and Lerma missed Bremen and remain unavailable; Karetsas is back in the squad, with Bensebaini's role still uncertain. Those are the current personnel behind the matchup rather than assumed starting elevens.
Bayern can control the opening spell, but Dortmund's first release and later attacking changes can keep a one-goal game alive. That's why I'm siding with Dortmund to stay close.
