Three games where a concrete edge sits on one side, none of them with a big sample behind it. Two are second-night basketball games where the schedule and the defence matter more than the names, and one is the opening game of a baseball playoff series decided by two starters and the back end of the bullpens.
Atlanta vs Houston: both teams are on the second night, but the paths to it differ. Houston played a close game in San Antonio and then travelled, while Atlanta crushed Charlotte by 47 and stayed nearby. Houston lives on free throws and size, and Atlanta is short two big men, so the rim fight is the real risk. Atlanta's defence tightens in the second half and Houston's has faded late in games, so the home side with fresher legs is the one I'm siding with.
Seoul Knights vs Suwon KT: the Knights are 2-1 in official games, with imports who score and rebound and a home record against KT that has mostly been comfortable. KT concedes about 85 a game, has lost four in a row and is thin at lead guard. The Knights are on a back-to-back and turnover-prone, which is why I want a cushion rather than a bare win. I'm siding with the Knights to win by a few.
Samsung vs KIA, Game 1: Nail has beaten Samsung in every start this year with quality innings and comes in on a normal week of rest after a strong semi-playoff outing. Fedeck is good over the second half of the season but is winless against KIA with a high ERA and has not pitched in a game for over two weeks. Samsung's closer is out for the series, which makes the late innings thinner than the record suggests. That's why I'm siding with KIA.
