Two matches where the home side is the favourite on paper but the chance rows and absences tell a tighter story.
Athletic Bilbao against Getafe: Getafe score only 0.8 a game over twenty matches and eight of the last ten meetings between these sides stayed low, with six draws. Bilbao are without Guruzeta and Sancet, and Getafe have lost forward options too. Bilbao do create about 1.5 xG at home, so an early goal could open it, but a game with three or more goals needs Getafe to score, which they have managed in only half of their last ten. I'm siding with a low-scoring game.
Manchester United against Bournemouth: United were out-created in each of their last five rows, and without their two midfield starters they struggle to hold the ball. Bournemouth's chance gap is about plus 1.2 xG over nine games and about plus 1.3 in the league over three. United have drawn four of seven league games, and the last two meetings were 2-2 and 4-4. That's why I'm on Bournemouth not losing.
