Two matches where each side has a route to goal that doesn't need much of the ball. The Breton derby pits a deep Lorient block against a Brest side that strikes early and then sits, and neither defence has looked able to shut out the other's route. In Bergamo, an Atalanta attack that piles up chances at home meets a Parma defence that gives the ball away, while Atalanta's own back line is the thinnest it has been all season.
Lorient v Brest. Brest have scored first in all four away games, three times inside the opening half hour, from crosses to Ajorque and scrambles from corners. They did it even when their attacking numbers were low. After that they drop deep, and they gave up the lead in three of those four games. With Tousart and Lloris paired at centre-back, Brest have not kept a clean sheet in any of their eight league games.
Lorient's attack is thin, but they have scored in every home game through routes that don't need volume: a penalty, a set piece, a substitute's goal around the hour. Lachuer has said derbies are not won by the side with the ball, which pushes Lorient into the ball-carrying role in which they conceded twice to Troyes. Whoever scores first, the trailing side has a proven way back. I'm siding with goals at both ends.
Atalanta v Parma. At home, Sarri's front unit of Krstovic and De Ketelaere has produced two or more expected goals against lower sides: Venezia, Frosinone and Pafos. Four of their five home league games went past two goals. Parma concede about 1.7 expected goals a game and lose the ball under pressure.
The other half is Atalanta's defence. Hien, Kossounou, Kolasinac, Bellanova and Kristensen are all out, Scalvini is only just back, and this is the third game in six days. They have one clean sheet in ten and face more than 18 shots a game. Parma's attack is the question, but Gilardino wants a fearless approach, and the patched line has given up chances to everyone. The likeliest scorelines are 2-1, 3-1, 3-0 and 2-2, so I'm on the goals side.
