Roma should be able to spend long spells around Cagliari's box and test how often the visitors can escape that pressure. Dortmund should also have more territory against Bremen, although Bremen's narrow block and quick exits can keep the cup tie close. These are different tests of what follows the first goal: Roma need another finish, while Bremen need to prevent Dortmund from opening a lasting gap.
Roma can recycle crosses and corners through Soulé, Malen and their wing-backs, then use fresh attackers or a second ball when the first chance is cleared. Cagliari's Maldini and Mendy offer a counter, but their recent chases against Bologna and in other low-chance games produced little repeat supply. Winks played in Cagliari's last match and is now out; Mina's possible return does not yet establish a new starting partnership. I expect Roma to press for a second clear finish after taking control, and I'm siding with AS Roma to build a decisive lead.
Dortmund's Guirassy, Beier and corner pressure can keep Bremen deep, but Bremen delayed their central access in the recent meeting and still had Reis and Grüll as exits. Frankfurt also held Dortmund scoreless for a long spell before a late breakthrough. Bensebaini played Dortmund's last match and is now suspended for the cup, with Gadou set for a much larger role; Füllkrug and Weiser played Bremen's last match, although their cup minutes are not confirmed. I expect Dortmund to create more, with Bremen's block and occasional transition keeping the score close enough. That's why I'm siding with Werder Bremen to stay within reach during regular time.
