Two B.League games where the season's headline numbers say less than the matchups do. In Tokyo, Alvark's big point difference was built mostly against bottom sides and on the road, and the visitors bring the one defence that targets Alvark's main weapon. In Kawasaki, the home side's size and Yokohama's foul habit line up against each other in a derby where the record does not tell the whole story.
Alvark against Brex. Alvark win through volume: about 36 three-point attempts a game at a strong rate, plus a big free-throw edge on the road. Without point guard Toews, though, they lost both home games against mid-table sides, 66-69 to Ibaraki when their threes were held to 11 of 27, and 82-91 to Mikawa. Brex shoot poorly from deep themselves, but their defence on the arc has been the real thing, with nine of their last ten opponents held to 37 percent or worse. Their heavy losses each had a clear cause, mainly Nagoya's pressure forcing 21 turnovers, and Alvark at home do not force turnovers like that, with only 3 to 8 steals a game. Olbrich is still on the injured list, and Tabuse and Hoshikawa are still out for Brex. All of that is already in recent boxes. I expect Alvark to lead early and Brex to keep it in single digits into the fourth, so I'm siding with Brex to stay close.
Kawasaki against Yokohama. Kawasaki win on size: Kirk, Bonds and LeDee out-rebounded the opponent in eight of nine complete boxes. Yokohama foul a lot, giving up about 21 free-throw attempts a game and 31 at Akita, which feeds Kawasaki's foul line directly. Kawasaki's turnover problems only showed up against sides that steal ten a game, and Yokohama sit well below that. Yokohama's close wins came at home, and they have allowed 90 or more in four straight games with their current core playing, while McGusty and King Kai are still out. Kawasaki should build their lead in the first half on second chances and free throws. Their second half can fade, but that is why I'm backing Kawasaki in a form that leaves room for a tighter finish.
