PSG against Lyon is less about who wins than about how far PSG can pull away without their usual match-winners. In the Champions League Elite, Al Qadsiah and Al-Sadd both arrive with defences that leak, and both have a reason to attack. One game turns on how big the margin gets, the other on goals at both ends.
PSG v Lyon. PSG press high, keep about two-thirds of the ball and average almost three expected goals. But they concede in nine of every ten games, and Dembele, Kvaratskhelia and Marquinhos all went off injured against Barcelona and are out. Nuno Mendes is missing too. The nearest test of this group was at Strasbourg, where PSG trailed until the 77th minute and needed Dembele and Doue off the bench to turn it. Doue now starts, and the bench behind him is thinner.
Lyon have lost Sulc, Nakamura and Openda, so their open-play threat is smaller. Fonseca rested almost the whole first-choice league XI at Hoffenheim, though, so the players who start in Paris are fresh. Their routes are set pieces against a back line without Marquinhos, and Athekame's crosses, like the Tessmann header against Nice. I expect PSG to have the ball, a tight first half, and PSG goals bunched late if they come. A three-goal PSG win needs the finishing that left with Dembele. That's why I'm siding with Lyon to keep it within reach.
Al Qadsiah v Al-Sadd. Al Qadsiah control the ball against domestic sides, but against Al Hilal and Pakhtakor that control disappeared. They also lose two of their three centre-backs and the midfield ball-winner Nandez, who went off injured against Al Hilal. On three days' rest, Rodgers will rotate. Al-Sadd have conceded two or more in four of their last five, including 22 shots allowed at home to Al Duhail, and with no points in the group they have to come forward.
Afif, Firmino and Claudinho, with Giovani running behind, meet a stand-in back line. Retegui, Quinones and Reijnders meet an Al-Sadd defence that keeps opening up. Al Qadsiah have scored in each of their last ten. Whichever side scores first, the other has to chase, so I'm backing goals at both ends.
