Two matches where one side clearly creates more than the other, and where the open question is how the goals arrive.
In Riyadh, Al Qadsiah are a possession-heavy home side: around 14 shots and 2.2 expected goals a game, with six shots on target on average. Al-Sadd arrive after two straight defeats in the Champions League, and their back line has conceded two a game over the last 20, giving up 2.24 expected goals to Al Hilal. Sadd's attack scored freely against weak Qatari opposition but went blank in both continental games, so their route is transitions and a few chances. Qadsiah just allowed Hilal 2.84 expected goals themselves, so the game should not be sealed. Sadd have conceded two or more in 16 of their last 20, and a team needing points has to open up. I'm on the goals here: this should be a busy match with Qadsiah leading the way.
In Portugal, Benfica meet a compact Santa Clara side. Benfica average about 19 shots and 2.2 expected goals against 0.8, scoring 2.8 a game, while Santa Clara create only around 1.2 expected goals at home and score 1.4. Benfica were without Barrenechea, Banjaqui and Kaminski when they won 4-1 in Cyprus and again scored four in Europe, so those absences are already absorbed. Pavlidis is the one doubt up front. Santa Clara will sit deep and look for a corner or counter, but Benfica have a clear volume gap and have won six of the last seven meetings. That's why I'm siding with Benfica to take the points.
