[26-27 UEL UEFA Europa League] NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia preview and analysis Kick-off: October 15, 19:00 UTC
NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia meet at De Goffert in Nijmegen at 19:00 UTC on October 15 for Matchday 2 of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Both teams lost their opening matches and have no points. It is NEC Nijmegen’s first Europa League home match in 17 years, and they need a first win. Levski Sofia also have a chance to carry their league-leading form onto the European stage.
1. Match overview and team form
NEC Nijmegen finished third in the Dutch league last season, but sit 11th this season with 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 8 league matches. They lost 5-0 away to Juventus in their Europa League opener. Levski Sofia won the Bulgarian league last season and lead the table again, with 9 wins and 1 draw from 10 matches. They lost 1-0 at home to Salzburg in their Europa League opener. Both teams reached this competition through Champions League qualifying. In the playoffs, NEC Nijmegen lost 6-1 on aggregate to Bodø/Glimt, while Levski Sofia lost 4-0 on aggregate to AEK Athens.
Recent records Last 10 competitive matches: NEC Nijmegen 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses, 13 goals scored and 23 conceded / Levski Sofia 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, 12 goals scored and 8 conceded European competition this season: NEC Nijmegen 2 draws and 3 losses in 5 matches, 2 goals scored and 12 conceded / Levski Sofia 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in 9 matches, 10 goals scored and 8 conceded Home and away in the last 20 competitive matches: NEC Nijmegen at home, 1 win, 6 draws and 3 losses in 10 matches, 0 clean sheets / Levski Sofia away, 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss in 10 matches, 3 clean sheets
NEC Nijmegen have gone 6 competitive matches without a win since beating Zwolle away on August 30. The squad has changed significantly since last season. Kodai Sano left for PSV, while Dušan Tadić joined. Their defensive record has played a major part in the downturn, with 2.0 goals conceded per match across 13 competitive games this season. They have drawn 1-1 with Go Ahead Eagles and Ajax in their last two matches, but it is too early to say the defence has settled. The data centre puts their expected goals conceded across those two matches at 4.09, while they actually conceded twice. Missed chances by their opponents and saves by the goalkeeper shaped those results.
Levski Sofia’s domestic form also needs to be viewed separately from their European results. All 10 of their goals in European competition this season came against Borac Banja Luka, Universitatea Craiova and Kairat Almaty. They failed to score in their two matches against AEK Athens and against Salzburg. Their latest league match was a 2-0 away win over Cherno More, who sit bottom of the table. It is still hard to judge whether Levski Sofia can finish as effectively against strong European opposition as they do at home.
Dick Schreuder’s NEC Nijmegen usually line up in a 3-4-2-1, shaping closer to a 3-4-3 in attack. Out of possession, they mark opponents individually and press high up the pitch. That approach can win the ball back in the opposition half, but when the first press is beaten, it can leave defenders in one-on-one situations. In the Juventus match, some of the heavy defeat was down to handling errors by Nikolas Polster, who replaced first-choice goalkeeper Gonzalo Crettaz. Crettaz is expected to start today, so those errors should not all be put down to the system.
Julio Velazquez’s Levski Sofia mainly use a 4-2-3-1, though they can switch to a 4-3-3. They build from the back, then move quickly down the flanks and into space behind the defence after winning possession. Velazquez said he would keep the team’s approach while adjusting the setup to face NEC Nijmegen. Reports have suggested Marko Grujić will start in midfield and Everton Bala will play through the middle up front, but the actual lineup will be decided on matchday.
The difference in available players could matter in the second half. NEC Nijmegen are without centre-backs Bram Nuytinck and Philippe Sandler, as well as forward Emre Mor. Mitchel Bakker, Adam Tahaui and Isak Hansen-Aarøen are also unavailable for Europa League selection. Centre-back Perr Schuurs is expected to start, but his condition will be checked at half-time. His potential replacement, Ahmetcan Kaplan, has played just 18 minutes this season. For Levski Sofia, Asen Mitkov, Radoslav Kirilov and Akram Bouras are absent from the travelling squad, while Mustafa Sangaré is also unavailable. Their plans to use Grujić and Bala take on added significance given those absences.
The data centre lists no competitive head-to-head record between the teams. Velazquez’s Fortuna Sittard lost 3-2 to NEC Nijmegen in 2022, but Schreuder was not NEC’s manager at the time. The current coaches’ approaches are a more direct guide than that old result. NEC Nijmegen had five days off after their trip to Ajax, while Levski Sofia had four after travelling to Cherno More. Levski Sofia managed the minutes of some starters in their last match and travelled by charter flight. The forecast for Nijmegen around kick-off is dry with light winds, so the weather should not give either team a clear advantage.
2. Matchup analysis
The first thing to watch is how Levski Sofia’s goalkeeper and defence handle their first pass. Schreuder said his team would press immediately and give the opposition no time on the ball. If Levski Sofia build short from the back as usual, NEC Nijmegen’s forwards and midfielders will track the intended receivers. Levski Sofia gave away two dangerous chances with passes from the back under pressure against Salzburg. If NEC Nijmegen win the ball in a similar area, Charon Chery, Tadić and Brian Linssen can finish close to goal. Still, winning the ball high up the pitch does not automatically lead to goals. Salzburg also won possession frequently, but did not create enough further chances.
Levski Sofia’s plan to start Grujić in midfield also comes into play here. If the experienced midfielder takes the first pass and moves it on, NEC Nijmegen’s pressers will already have pushed forward. Bala and Reynaldo can then run into the open space behind them. Levski Sofia could also mix in direct passes towards Bala. Juventus scored after bypassing NEC Nijmegen’s press with a long ball, and Levski Sofia also found Reynaldo in behind against Salzburg. Whether Grujić starts and how well Bala handles his new role will shape the effectiveness of that response.
When NEC Nijmegen attack, the space left behind by Levski Sofia’s advancing full-backs will matter. Right-back Aldair set up Reynaldo with a low cross against Cherno More. If he pushes high, NEC Nijmegen can switch play to the opposite flank and use Chery and Tadić’s movement, along with Kevin Kers’s crossing. The attack that led to the penalty for their equaliser against Ajax also began with a low cross from Kers. NEC Nijmegen made several advances down the flanks late in that match, though their crossing lacked accuracy. If Levski Sofia hold their full-backs back, they will reduce that space, but Aldair will also have fewer chances to cross in attack.
Set pieces offer another route to goal at both ends. Chery’s corner led to Schuurs’s headed goal against Go Ahead Eagles. Levski Sofia conceded twice from corners away to AEK Athens. In the other direction, they scored against Cherno More after Serginho’s corner led to a second phase of attack. NEC Nijmegen also conceded a header from a corner against Bodø/Glimt. One set piece could change the score even if either team comes out on top in the pressing battle.
Schuurs’s minutes could make the second half a different contest. Schreuder said he would start him and check his condition at half-time. If Schuurs comes off, NEC Nijmegen will need to change their centre-back pairing and will lose the player who headed in Chery’s corner. There was no further goal conceded after Schuurs was substituted in the 72nd minute against Ajax, so his replacement alone should not be treated as a direct cause of conceding. But if Kaplan comes on, despite his limited minutes this season, or another defender moves across, the player tasked with tracking Levski Sofia’s fast attackers will change. NEC Nijmegen also have limited attacking options off the bench, which could make it harder to manage the game if they are level or behind.
The first goal will also affect the intensity of this tactical battle. If NEC Nijmegen score first, Levski Sofia may commit more players forward in pursuit of an equaliser, leaving space for NEC to attack. At the same time, NEC will need to stop Levski’s transition attacks after any change at centre-back. If Levski Sofia score first, NEC Nijmegen are likely to push more players forward. Levski Sofia have avoided defeat in 7 of their last 10 competitive matches when they were level or ahead at half-time, but today they face a side that keep pressing high even when trailing. Their past results alone do not show that they can protect a one-goal lead.
3. Final view and prediction
Our score prediction is NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Levski Sofia. We expect NEC Nijmegen to press high in the first half, win the ball in the opposition half and take the lead while Schuurs is on the pitch, with Chery’s set pieces also posing a threat. Levski Sofia are likely to respond in the second half by beating the first press and sending their fast forwards in behind, or by scoring from a Serginho set piece. Both teams have routes to goal, but after an equaliser NEC Nijmegen will have fewer attacking substitutes and will have lost a target for set pieces. Levski Sofia will have no need to throw too many players forward, so we do not expect a winner.
The overseas market leans towards an NEC Nijmegen win, pointing to home advantage, last season’s league standings and Levski Sofia’s recent failure to score in European competition. But NEC Nijmegen have not won any of their 6 home competitive matches this season and have conceded in every one. The impact of Schuurs’s eventual withdrawal is also difficult to capture by looking only at the listed absences, as it changes both the centre-back pairing and the set-piece threat. Levski Sofia’s quick forward runs into the space behind NEC Nijmegen’s man-marking defence also weaken the case that a home lead in the first half will turn into a win.
The main condition that could change this outlook is Levski Sofia’s build-up early in the match. If Grujić and Serginho can connect the first pass reliably and mix in direct balls towards Bala to beat NEC Nijmegen’s press early, our expectation that the home side will lead at half-time may not hold.
