[2026-27 Netherlands Eredivisie] Excelsior Rotterdam vs Groningen preview and analysis Kick-off: 11 October, 14:45 UTC
Excelsior Rotterdam and Groningen meet at Stadion Woudestein in Rotterdam at 14:45 UTC on 11 October. Both teams have taken 11 points from seven Eredivisie matches and return to league action after a three-week international break. They are one place apart in the table, but have earned their points in different ways and have different areas to target in this match.
1. Match overview and team form
Excelsior Rotterdam sit seventh, ahead on goal difference, with Groningen eighth. The teams have identical win-draw-loss records and have scored the same number of goals this season, but differ by four goals conceded. Their records by venue show another contrast.
League record this season Overall: Excelsior Rotterdam 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 15 goals scored, 9 conceded / Groningen 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 15 goals scored, 13 conceded Home: Excelsior Rotterdam 1 win, 2 losses, 4 goals scored, 5 conceded / Groningen 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 9 goals scored, 6 conceded Away: Excelsior Rotterdam 2 wins, 2 draws, 11 goals scored, 4 conceded / Groningen 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, 6 goals scored, 7 conceded
Excelsior Rotterdam are unbeaten in four away matches, but have lost two of their three at home. Groningen have conceded seven goals in three away games. Records from only three or four matches at each venue cannot decide this one. Still, Excelsior had 56% possession against Utrecht at home but managed fewer shots and shots on target. Groningen had 68% possession against Fortuna Sittard, yet conceded three times to long balls and counter-attacks. The key question is which side controls possession and which wins it back and breaks forward quickly.
Their recent results also tell different stories. Excelsior Rotterdam have gone three games without a win, but against NEC Nijmegen they came from behind before conceding an equaliser in stoppage time, and against Ajax they were pegged back just two minutes after taking the lead. They also drew level in the second half against Utrecht before losing to a stoppage-time mistake on a back pass. Their attack has still produced five goals in three games, but they have dropped points while trying to protect leads. Head coach Ruben den Uil said fatigue played a part in the late goal against NEC Nijmegen. The team had been playing on a short turnaround then, so we cannot assume the same fatigue will cause a goal now, after three weeks off.
Groningen are unbeaten in three, though two of those matches were draws after they had taken the lead. In their most recent game, a 3-0 win over PEC Zwolle, Marco Rente returned at centre-back and Groningen ended a run of 11 consecutive league matches conceding. The defensive recovery gives them a reason for optimism. But PEC Zwolle were 16th at the time, and the left side of the defence that kept a clean sheet could change for this match. One clean sheet is not enough evidence to say the defence is settled away against a mid-table opponent.
Excelsior Rotterdam’s Noah Naujoks has been out injured since scoring twice in the opening match. In his absence, Irakli Yegoian, David Garden and Aymen Sliti have led the attack. Yegoian has 2 goals and 4 assists in seven league games this season, directly involved in 6 of the team’s 15 goals. Left-back Simon Janssen returned to the starting line-up against Ajax after injury and is also in our projected XI for this match. If Janssen is unavailable, options in his position are limited. He has 3 assists this season and has also taken corners.
Groningen are still without Elvis Van der Laan and Tyrique Mercera, while Travis Hernes has not travelled for this away fixture. These players have had limited minutes this season, so their absence does not remove a key starting role. The more important decision is at left-back. Hans Hateboer has played just 23 minutes this season, while Mark Zingerle featured in four matches for his national team over 11 days. Head coach Dick Lukkien said he would choose between the two based on the role needed in the match. Wouter Prins, recently back from injury, is also expected to be an option from the bench.
Lukkien has stuck with a 4-2-3-1 and a consistent starting group for some time. In the win over PEC Zwolle, with Rente back, the move for Tom van Bergen’s goal ran through right-sided players Jorg Schreuders and David van der Werff. Den Uil, by contrast, has adjusted his defensive numbers depending on the opponent and used substitutes to make an attacking impact. A substitute was directly involved in the winner against Sparta Rotterdam and the comeback goal against NEC Nijmegen. The starting shape and the changes in the second half could both shape this matchup.
The teams met twice last season, and the away side won both games. Groningen won 2-0 in Rotterdam in December 2025, while Excelsior Rotterdam won 3-2 in Groningen in May 2026. Both sides scored from headers at the far post after corners in the May match, and Excelsior’s winner came on the counter after Groningen pushed forward. Groningen scorer Younes Taha and Excelsior Rotterdam’s second-half scorers are not part of the same attacking line-ups now. The table stakes have also changed since they were fighting for survival and a European play-off place. The useful reference points are the set-piece battles and the attacking moves during the chase, rather than the results.
Both teams have six or seven days until their next league match, so there is little scheduling reason to rest starters here. Several Groningen players were away with their national teams, leaving the squad only three days to train together before this match. Gusty winds are forecast in Rotterdam around kick-off, rather than rain. If the wind is strong, it could affect the accuracy of long passes and high corners for both teams.
2. Matchup analysis
The area Excelsior Rotterdam will target most actively is Groningen’s left side. Yegoian does not stay on one flank. Against Willem II, he beat a defender on the left and played a low pass for Garden to score. Against Ajax, he drove forward on the right and sent in a low cross that led to Sliti scoring at the far post. If he moves to the right in this match, he will face Groningen’s left-back, either Hateboer or Zingerle. Whoever starts will need to be assessed for match sharpness or fitness after international duty.
Groningen left winger Jacob Ondrejka was less involved than the players on the right in the win over PEC Zwolle. If Groningen lose possession while trying to play through Schreuders and van der Werff on the right, Excelsior Rotterdam could quickly switch the ball towards Yegoian. If Eric da Silva Moreira also pushes forward from the right, Groningen’s left defence will have more players to deal with. That is one possible pattern based on the teams’ attacking routes. Groningen’s Tika de Jonge and Pelle Clement can reduce the number of one-on-one situations by winning the ball before it reaches Yegoian’s starting position.
On the other flank, Groningen can target the space behind Excelsior Rotterdam’s Janssen. He gets forward often and has 3 assists this season. If Groningen win the ball after he advances, Rente’s long pass and the right-sided link-up between Schreuders and van der Werff could find that space. Their opener against PEC Zwolle began with a pass from Rente, went through the right and ended with van Bergen’s finish. Excelsior need to organise their cover behind Janssen if they want to keep his attacking runs while closing off that route. Den Uil could drop Meissen into the defensive line to add cover, though that would leave fewer midfielders to support Yegoian’s forward runs.
The centre-back pairing also makes it difficult to read too much into Groningen’s previous matches. Against Fortuna Sittard, they failed to deal with an opposing forward receiving a long ball, and conceded on the counter after pushing forward in search of an equaliser. Zingerle and Thijmen Blokzijl played at centre-back that day. Rente is now back and likely to start alongside Blokzijl. Whether he can deal with Excelsior’s long balls and help start attacks will be tested against stronger opposition than PEC Zwolle. Excelsior have also scored after a long kick from van Gassel sent Yegoian forward, though repeating that accuracy will depend on the forecast gusts.
Set pieces offer another route if attacks down the flanks are shut down. Excelsior Rotterdam scored both of their goals from corners against Sparta Rotterdam, and Rick Meissen headed home a Janssen corner against Willem II. Groningen also scored from a de Jonge header at the far post in last May’s meeting. Both teams failed to defend that area in the match. Excelsior may have fewer corners, though, if they cannot spend as much time in the opposition half as they did against Ajax. If the wind makes high balls difficult, a short free-kick like the one Groningen scored from against PEC Zwolle could be more useful.
The managers’ choices after the first goal could change the battle on the flanks. If Excelsior Rotterdam take the lead, Groningen could add an attacker in the 60th minute or later to try to get back into the game. If that also means changing the left side of the defence, the players Yegoian faces could change again. If Groningen go ahead, Den Uil could bring on attacking options, while still needing to protect the space behind Janssen and the passing lanes from the back. Both teams have recently drawn games after taking the lead. The timing and circumstances of those goals conceded were different, so the recent results do not make a late goal inevitable.
3. Verdict and prediction
We give Excelsior Rotterdam a narrow edge. Both teams have routes to attack the other’s flanks, but Groningen’s left-back position brings together a lack of match minutes for one candidate, international duty for the other and an injury return for the substitute option. Yegoian has been involved in the most goals for Excelsior Rotterdam this season and has also created a scoring chance from the right. Groningen can target the space behind Janssen, but Den Uil has the option of adding a defender to cover it.
The market views this as an even matchup, weighing the teams’ identical points totals, Excelsior Rotterdam’s poor home record, Groningen’s recent unbeaten run and the return of players to the squad. We differ because Groningen’s left defence has not yet shown it is settled, despite several players returning. Excelsior’s recent winless run has not stopped their attacks down the flanks or their set-piece threat. Rente’s return gives Groningen a route to start attacks on the right, but the full squad have had only three days to train together. Taken together, those factors tilt us slightly towards the home side.
Our score prediction is 2-1 or 3-1 to the home side, with 2-1 the likelier result. We expect Excelsior Rotterdam to take the lead through Yegoian advancing on the right, then target the space that opens when Groningen add attackers. Groningen also have a route to a goal through the Schreuders and van der Werff combination or a second-half set piece. Given Excelsior’s late defensive issues, a one-goal margin is the main outcome. The score could stretch to 3-1 if Groningen change their left-back while chasing the game and concede again down that side. If Groningen’s left defence keeps Yegoian from advancing and de Jonge and Clement intercept passes intended for him, our expectation of a home edge will weaken.
