[2026-27 German Bundesliga] Union Berlin vs Elversberg Preview and Analysis Kick-off: 10 October, 22:30 KST
Union Berlin and Elversberg meet at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin at 22:30 KST on 10 October for the fifth round of the Bundesliga. Union sit 17th and need their first win of the season, while seventh-placed Elversberg are looking to build on a strong start in their first top-flight campaign in club history. The visitors have the better position in the table, but the outcome may hinge on how Union’s attacking approach meets Elversberg’s press.
1. Match overview and team form
League position and points: Union Berlin 17th, 1 point / Elversberg 7th, 7 points First four matches: Union Berlin 1 draw, 3 losses, 4 goals scored, 17 conceded / Elversberg 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, 8 goals scored, 7 conceded
Eleven of Union Berlin’s 17 goals conceded came away to Leverkusen and Bayern Munich. Their home defending has not been steady either. They drew 3-3 with Frankfurt and lost 3-1 to Schalke 04. Union repeatedly got into the box in both games and managed 17 and 21 shots respectively, but also conceded three goals each time. Against Schalke, they failed to track the player arriving at the far post to finish a cross from the right, then struggled to deal with a long ball and a quick passing move just after half-time. We need to weigh both the chances Union created at home and the goals they conceded there.
Under new summer appointment Mauro Lustrinelli, Union have switched from their long-used back five to a back four. They used a different centre-back pairing in each of their first three matches, and goals have continued to come even in the last two games, when Querfeld and Uduokhai started together. Lustrinelli said the team worked during the international break on positioning in possession and covering space after losing the ball. Bayern’s opening goal came after Union lost possession while pushing forward, before they could get their defensive shape back. We will see whether the break’s work helps them in that situation.
There are changes to Union’s attack, too. Right-back Josip Juranović is out with illness. Two of Union’s four league goals came from his corners. Against Frankfurt, long throws also created a late contest in the box. Christopher Trimmel is expected to fill in at right-back, but we cannot assume Union will create set-piece chances in the same way. Striker Emmanuel Latte Lath is a doubt with a muscle problem. Tim Skarke is the alternative to start if he is unavailable. Skarke has scored twice after coming off the bench in stoppage time at home this season. Starting him would also change the attacking option Union could bring on later.
Elversberg beat Leverkusen 3-2 and Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3, then lost 2-1 to Bayern and drew 0-0 away to Schalke 04. Bundesliga figures put their expected goals at 5.84 and expected goals against at 9.49 across the first four matches. Those numbers differ from their actual returns of eight goals scored and seven conceded, though the 3.68 expected goals against against Bayern heavily affected the defensive figure. Elversberg pounced on loose possession and passing errors in Leverkusen’s build-up to score. At Schalke, by contrast, they had 61% possession but managed just one shot on target. Their attacking output has varied depending on whether opponents had the ball or sat compact and let Elversberg have it.
Coach Vincent Wagner has adjusted his pressing positions to suit each opponent. Elversberg won the ball high against Leverkusen and launched attacks from close range, while against Bayern they narrowed their defensive shape after conceding and used long passes. Their attacking midfield options will change this time. Francis Onyeka is out with a foot ligament injury, and Noah Darvich is expected to take his place. Tom Zimmerschied may also start on the left in place of Cole Campbell, who returned late from duty with the United States. We cannot attribute the goalless draw with Schalke solely to Onyeka’s absence, but the reshuffled attacking midfield has yet to score against a well-organised defence.
The two clubs have no record of first-team competitive meetings. Their respective matches against Schalke 04 offer a useful comparison. Union struggled with Schalke’s early press at home, then increased their box presence once Schalke dropped deeper. Elversberg had plenty of the ball away to Schalke but did not score. Which side builds from the back and which one presses will determine which of those two patterns is closer to this match. Both teams are playing their first competitive fixture in around three weeks, and neither has a midweek game next week. Elversberg have travelled to Berlin by plane for the first time, but they have already picked up points away to Mönchengladbach and Schalke this season.
2. Match-up analysis
The key battle is Union’s build-up from the back against Elversberg’s front-foot press. Union have trailed at half-time in all four league matches this season. Against Frankfurt, they failed to deal with the ball from the restart in their last line of defence and conceded. Against Bayern, they lost the ball while advancing and were punished. Elversberg turned turnovers and passing errors in Leverkusen’s build-up into successive goals. If Union try to keep the ball and play out from the back at home, Elversberg could find the kind of opportunities they know well.
Union do have ways to respond. If Latte Lath plays, he gives them a target for long passes under pressure and a strong aerial option at set pieces. If he misses out and Skarke starts, that changes both the aerial contest up front and Union’s options off the bench. Lustrinelli could also narrow the defensive spacing and allow Elversberg to have the ball. In that case, the visitors would need to find a way through a compact defence, as they did not against Schalke. We still lack enough evidence to judge how effective their reshuffled attacking midfield, including the change on the left, will be in that situation.
Union could also make life difficult for Elversberg by pressing their defenders early. Elversberg’s players have admitted they felt pressure when trying to play short passes out of every situation against a strong press. Goalkeeper Nicolas Kristof’s long passing is one way to bypass that pressure. Their equaliser against Bayern also began with his long ball and Darvich’s link-up play. Union have not yet turned a high regain into a goal this season, though. The possibility of exposing Elversberg’s weakness at the back is separate from having evidence that Union can convert it into a goal.
On the flank, Elversberg right winger Lukas Petkov will face Union left-back Tom Rothe. Petkov set up David Mokwa with a cross from the right against Leverkusen. Union conceded from crosses delivered from the opposition’s right against both Leverkusen and Schalke. If Rothe pushes forward and Elversberg break quickly down that side, or if Petkov delivers a cross and Union lose track of a runner in the middle or at the far post, the same problem could surface again. If Union keep possession while Rothe is advanced, Petkov will have to help defend. The shape of this duel will depend on where Union lose the ball.
Set pieces offer Union a route back into the game. Elversberg failed to clear a corner properly against Mönchengladbach and conceded from a second-phase set-piece attack against Leverkusen. Union have Querfeld, who has scored with a header, and Rothe, whose header against Schalke hit the post. Juranović is out, though, so we cannot take the accuracy of Union’s previous home corners for granted. They can still send the ball back into the box after the first delivery is cleared, but if Latte Lath is also absent, they will have fewer aerial targets to finish those chances.
As the match wears on, the substitutions and pressing intensity will matter. Three of Union’s four league goals have come after the 79th minute. Against Frankfurt, Lustrinelli made three changes in the 61st minute and Union came back from 1-3 to draw 3-3. Elversberg conceded twice from crosses and second-phase set-piece attacks after their pressing intensity dipped around the 70th minute against Leverkusen. Several players have been away on international duty during the break, and Wagner has mentioned fatigue among some of them. The late drop in intensity against Leverkusen does not prove the same thing will happen at the same time today.
Wagner’s substitutions will also depend on the starting lineup. Maurice Krattenmacher has made an impact after coming off the bench this season. Starting him in place of Campbell could help Elversberg early on, but would leave them with one fewer option to bring on later. If Zimmerschied starts, Wagner could use Krattenmacher in the second half. Union’s options depend on the same decision: if Latte Lath starts, Skarke can come off the bench as he has in previous home games. For both sides, the starting choices also shape their attacking options late in the match.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Elversberg to create the more dangerous chances early, with Union chasing the game in the second half. Union’s struggles dealing with the ball at the back and covering space after pushing forward play into the hands of the pressing and quick attacks Elversberg used against Leverkusen. Petkov’s crosses from the right also target an area where Union have conceded repeatedly this season. Union still have a path to a goal through second-phase set pieces and box battles once the visitors’ press eases.
The market appears to give Union a slight edge on home advantage and the fact that much of their heavy conceding has come away to top sides. We rate the home side’s chances lower: they have conceded three goals in both home games, and Juranović, who contributed to their home attack, is out. Elversberg’s scoring patterns match up with the situations in which Union have conceded. Elversberg could also struggle to score without Onyeka and with a change on the left, so we do not expect them to dominate throughout.
Our predicted score is 1-2 or 2-2, with the score given from Union Berlin’s perspective. The 1-2 looks more likely if Latte Lath is out. Elversberg could take the lead early through a turnover or a cross from the right, then Union could pull one back with pressure in the box after the break. If Latte Lath plays, Union retain a target for long passes and set pieces, while Skarke can come on as a substitute. That gives them a better chance of fighting back to 2-2 late on. The key condition that could shift this outlook is Elversberg’s reshuffled attacking midfield. If Darvich and the new left-sided attacker fail to turn regains in Union’s half into shots, the visitors’ chances of scoring first will also diminish.
