[2026 UEFA Nations League] Ukraine vs Hungary Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 6, 03:45 KST
Ukraine and Hungary meet in Trnava, Slovakia, at 03:45 KST on October 6 for their fourth League B, Group 2 match in the UEFA Nations League. Both teams have four points from three games, but a draw would mean different things to each side. Ukraine would protect its second-place standing and head-to-head advantage, while Hungary need a win to move above them.
1. Match overview and team form
Ukraine’s nominal home ground is Anton Malatinsky Stadium. The team cannot play home matches in Ukraine because of the war, and they lost 3-0 to Northern Ireland here three days ago. The Hungarian Football Federation said on October 3 that almost all tickets in the six sections allocated to Hungarian supporters had sold out. Ukraine will play at a familiar venue, but the crowd is unlikely to provide the usual home advantage.
Teams Ukraine: 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss in three group-stage matches, 1 goal scored and 3 conceded / Key absentees: Heorhii Sudakov, Vitalii Mykolenko, Mykola Matviienko and Danylo Sikan Hungary: 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss in three group-stage matches, 1 goal scored and 1 conceded / Key absentees: Milos Kerkez, Barnabás Varga, Roland Sallai and Damir Redzic
Ukraine beat Hungary 1-0 away in Budapest, then drew 0-0 with Georgia. Against Northern Ireland, they had plenty of the ball but managed an expected goals figure of just 0.44 (Correspondent, October 3). Northern Ireland’s 5-4-1 blocked the middle, leaving Ukraine unable to attack through the gaps between the lines. Viktor Tsygankov and Andriy Yarmolenko combined on the right, but their moves did not produce a goal. At the other end, Ukraine conceded twice from a corner scramble and wide crosses. The third goal came after a mistake by goalkeeper Dmytro Riznyk. The 3-0 scoreline does not mean the whole defence collapsed, but it exposed separate problems with aerial defending and building attacks.
Hungary lost 1-0 to Ukraine, drew 0-0 with Northern Ireland, then beat Georgia 1-0. Against Georgia, they recorded 26 shots and 1.95 expected goals despite having just 42% possession (Index, October 2). After Zsolt Nagy won the ball in the opposition half, Hungary worked it through András Schäfer and Milán Tóth to Dániel Lukács. Lukács crossed from the right, and Kerkez headed home. Hungary showed how they can win the ball back and create chances, though their finishing remains an issue: 26 shots yielded only one goal.
Both teams have scored just once in this competition. Sikan, who scored Ukraine’s winner in the first meeting, and Sudakov, who supplied the cross, are unavailable. Hungary’s only scorer, Kerkez, is suspended, though the provider, Lukács, is still available. Ukraine also have to rebuild their left side of defence. Mykolenko has left the squad through injury, and captain Matviienko, who filled in there against Northern Ireland, is suspended. Bohdan Mykhaylichenko, who played on the left against Georgia, is a doubt with a cold. Whatever defensive shape coach Andrea Maldera chooses, the role of the left-sided player facing Hungary’s attacks down the right will change.
There are doubts in the centre of Ukraine’s attack too. After Sudakov, Mykola Shaparenko reported calf pain, while Oleksandr Zubkov’s availability will be decided on matchday based on his back condition. Some predicted line-ups have Shaparenko and Zubkov starting, but those should not be treated as confirmed teams. Hungary have been without Varga and Sallai through injury throughout the camp, and Redzic, who was hurt in the first match, is also out. With Kerkez missing as well, Hungary have fewer options to finish crosses.
Andrea Maldera has used short passes from the back to move forward, with an attacking midfielder receiving the ball in tight spaces. He has made sweeping changes to the starting XI from match to match in this tournament, using two strikers, a back three and a back four with a centre-back at full-back. Marco Rossi has kept a more consistent core of starters while adjusting Dominik Szoboszlai’s position. Against Georgia, Szoboszlai played in midfield alongside Schäfer, and Hungary’s attacks down the flanks after winning the ball high up the pitch proved effective.
The only meeting in the past five years was the first leg in Hungary on September 26. Hungary created early chances, with Lukács hitting the crossbar in the 11th minute and Bendegúz Bolla shooting in the 19th. Ukraine scored, though. Mykolenko and Sudakov combined on the left before Sikan headed home. Most of the Hungarian players involved in those early chances remain available, while the only player who can feature today among those involved in Ukraine’s winner is Vladyslav Vanat, whose movement had drawn the defensive line back. We should therefore separate the first-leg result from the likelihood of seeing those same attacks again today.
Both teams played their previous match on October 3 KST, and this is the final fixture in a four-match run over 11 days. Six of Hungary’s key players, including Szoboszlai, started all three games. Szoboszlai was substituted against Georgia with cramps and fatigue, then took extra rest at an open training session on October 4. He is expected to start, but we will have to see whether he can maintain the same intensity throughout the match. Ukraine rotated their starting line-up to spread the workload, but absences are concentrated in the left-sided defensive and attacking-link roles they need today. The forecast calls for light winds and no rain, conditions that should not particularly limit either team’s crosses or set pieces.
2. Matchup analysis
The clearest matchup is Hungary’s attack down the right against Ukraine’s new-look left side of defence. Lukács delivered the cross for the winner against Georgia, and Hungary also created good chances down the right in the first leg. Against Northern Ireland, Ukraine allowed Isaac Price to arrive at the far post and head in a right-wing cross. If Hungary send the ball into the same area today, Ukraine will need a new combination of players to block the cross out wide and track runners in the box.
Maldera could move a centre-back to left-back or use a back three with wing-backs. A centre-back on the flank would help Ukraine contest aerial balls in the box, but they could lack forward runs down the left, as they did against Northern Ireland. A wing-back would give them someone to carry the ball up the flank, but that player would also have to deal with Lukács and Hungary’s right-back. Either way, Ukraine need to be clear about who tracks runners arriving at the far post, as Price did for Northern Ireland’s goal in the 22nd minute. He escaped Illya Zabarnyi’s marking to score with a header.
Crosses alone do not guarantee Hungary a goal. Against Georgia, left-back Kerkez arrived at the far post to finish Lukács’s delivery. Kerkez and aerial target Varga are both missing today. Milán Tóth, substitute striker Donát Bárány and centre-back Willi Orbán, who pushes forward for set pieces, could contest crosses, but none of them have scored in this tournament. Hungary still have a route to exploit Ukraine’s defensive weakness, but they need to show they can finish the chances.
At the other end, Tsygankov and right-back Illya Krupskyi will test Hungary’s reshaped left side. Kerkez’s potential replacement, Nagy, played in a more advanced role against Georgia and started the move for the winner by winning the ball in the opposition half. If he drops into left-back, he will have to mark Tsygankov directly, making it harder for him to keep winning the ball high up the pitch as he did against Georgia. Whoever plays there, Hungary’s left side will have a different look from the previous three matches.
Ukraine need to turn their attacks down the right into shots if they are to take advantage. Against Northern Ireland, Tsygankov and Yarmolenko exchanged passes on the right, but Ukraine did too little on the opposite flank to stretch the defence. With Sudakov out, they also have fewer options to receive between the lines in midfield and switch play. If Hungary protect the middle and add numbers on Ukraine’s right, Tsygankov will have to rely more on beating his man or a quick switch to the other flank. Ukraine still have his set pieces and direct passes in behind the Hungarian defence. In the second half of the first leg, Ihor Krasnopir ran through one-on-one with the goalkeeper after receiving a pass from Oleh Ocheretko.
In midfield, a lot will depend on when Hungary press and how Ukraine play through it. Hungary’s winner against Georgia began with a high turnover. If Hungary press Ukraine’s defensive midfielder during their short build-up, they can use Schäfer and Szoboszlai to move the attack down the right. Football24 noted mistakes by Ukraine’s Yegor Nazaryna and Ocheretko under pressure in a June match (September 25). Maldera could give Ukraine more passing options at the back with a back three, which would improve their chances of beating Hungary’s first line of pressure. If they do, Hungary’s new left-back will have to react as soon as Tsygankov receives the ball.
Possession could also shift as the match develops. Ukraine had less of the ball away to Hungary but won, while they failed to score in their two matches against Georgia and Northern Ireland, when they had more possession. Hungary created their most chances against Georgia while having less of the ball. Three matches apiece are not enough to establish either team’s fixed style, but if Hungary give up possession early and wait for Ukraine to come forward, Ukraine will need to solve the central attacking problem that has stalled them in recent games. If Hungary push their defensive line higher later on in search of a win, Ukraine could find space for the kind of counterattack they threatened in the first leg.
The first goal would leave the other team with a difficult task. If Hungary score first, Ukraine will have to break down a deep defence. Ukraine have lost all three of their last 10 competitive matches in which they went in at half-time behind, and they are also without Sudakov and Sikan today. If Ukraine take the lead, Hungary will have to see more of the ball and push forward. Hungary attacked that way in the second half of the first leg but created few clear finishes, while Ukraine fashioned a one-on-one chance for Krasnopir. Ukraine are missing Mykolenko and Matviienko, though, who protected the left side that day. Even if they defend a lead the same way, they will have different players to deal with Hungary’s crosses.
Even if the game stays 0-0 for a long time, Hungary do not have to take every risk straight away. A draw would preserve Ukraine’s head-to-head advantage, but it would also give Hungary points to keep their promotion hopes alive. Rossi brought on two attacking players together in the 50th minute or later against both Northern Ireland and Georgia. He could again use substitutions to add threat, though the impact will depend on Szoboszlai’s minutes and the new forward’s finishing. As Hungary push forward, Ukraine can look to Tsygankov on the flank and send a substitute forward in behind the defence.
3. Final verdict and conclusion
Our score prediction is Ukraine 0-1 Hungary or Ukraine 0-2 Hungary. We expect Hungary to create more chances and score first from a cross or set piece, then see Ukraine fail to build the attack needed to catch up. If Hungary take an early lead and Ukraine push their defensive line higher, a counterattack or another set piece could make it a two-goal margin. Hungary are also without Kerkez and Varga, so we do not expect them to score freely.
Hungary still have Lukács’s right-wing crosses and Szoboszlai’s supply, while Ukraine have lost the left-sided defenders who would have dealt with those attacks. Ukraine are without Sudakov and Sikan, the key players behind their first-leg winner, making it harder to turn possession into chances. Both teams can live with a draw, which could discourage an aggressive start, so we expect Hungary to have a narrow edge.
The market gives Ukraine a slight edge based on the first-leg win, their second-place position and their status as the home team on paper. But the main players behind that first-leg goal are unavailable, and this is a neutral-site match with a large share of the crowd supporting Hungary. Ukraine’s absences affect both their routes to goal and the left side of defence tasked with stopping Hungary’s main attack. We think Hungary have a better chance than the market suggests. If Hungary’s new-look left side cannot contain Tsygankov and Krupskyi, Ukraine could score and swing the outlook towards a draw.
