[2026 UEFA Nations League] Belarus vs San Marino: Match Preview and Analysis Kick-off: October 4, 01:00 (Korea time)
Belarus and San Marino meet in Budapest, Hungary, at 01:00 Korea time on October 4 for their third match in League C, Group 1 of the 2026–27 UEFA Nations League. Belarus are looking for their first win and first goal, while San Marino are chasing their first point. There is a clear gap in quality, but we still have to see whether Belarus can use long spells of possession to break down a deep defence.
1. Match overview and team form
The match will be played at the Rudolf Illovszky Stadium. Belarus are the nominal home team, but sanctions on international fixtures mean they are playing abroad. Coach Viktor Goncharenko says there will be no spectators, either. Belarus lost 2–0 away to Albania and drew 0–0 away to Finland, leaving them third in the group on one point. San Marino have lost 7–0 to Finland and 3–0 to Albania and sit bottom without a point. Neither side has scored in their first two matches.
First two matches in this competition Record: Belarus 1 draw, 1 loss / San Marino 2 losses Goals: Belarus 0 scored, 2 conceded / San Marino 0 scored, 10 conceded Next match: Belarus vs Finland in Budapest / San Marino vs Albania in Tirana
Belarus’s two scoreless games unfolded differently. Against Albania, they conceded twice in the first half: once from a penalty and once on a quick break immediately after losing the ball. They could not find a way back into the game. Against Finland, they kept their defensive shape and finished 0–0, with two goals ruled out for offside. The fact that Belarus have not scored does not mean they have created no chances. Still, most of their threat against Finland came just after winning the ball and from set pieces. That is a different setup from the possession-based attack we expect against San Marino.
San Marino’s two defeats also had different stories. Against Finland, they failed to deal with crosses from wide areas in the 5th and 14th minutes. Alessandro Golinucci was sent off in the 51st minute, with the score at 4–0. Against Albania, they conceded in the 21st and 27th minutes but later created shooting chances on the counter. They had six shots, including a close-range effort from Nicola Nanni, while goalkeeper Edoardo Colombo made five saves. There is some basis for saying their defending improved from the previous match, but they still have not solved their early goals-against problem.
In their recent competitive matches, Belarus have gone 8 games without a win, with 3 draws and 5 losses, scoring 4 and conceding 19. San Marino have lost all 6 of their games, scoring once and conceding 37. Those figures are not enough on their own to predict today’s score. Belarus’s competitive opponents have included Greece, Denmark, Finland and Albania, with no teams ranked below them. San Marino have also faced much stronger opposition in competitive matches. Under Goncharenko, Belarus have recorded 3 wins and 1 draw in 4 friendlies, but they have yet to face a deep-lying opponent in a competitive game. San Marino’s losses by just one goal against teams of a similar level have also come mainly in friendlies.
Belarus beat San Marino 5–0 and 2–0 in their two Nations League meetings in 2018. They scored within the first 10 minutes in both games. But none of those goalscorers are in the current squads, and both teams have different coaches and personnel now. Those two wins show the gap between the sides, but they do not tell us when the first goal will come or how wide the final margin will be.
Belarus’s options at full-back will matter when the teams are named. Gleb Shevchenko and Vladislav Malkevich are out injured, so centre-back Vladislav Kalinin has played at right-back in the last two matches. If Kalinin stays in his defensive position, the wide midfielder ahead of him is likely to provide most of Belarus’s right-sided attacking width. Goncharenko has signalled that he may rotate for this third match because of fatigue, and says two players are also doubts. He did not name them, so we will have to wait for the line-up to see which positions might change.
For San Marino, defender Alberto Riccardi and attacking player Filippo Berardi are out after knee surgery. Neither started against Albania. Golinucci did not play against Albania after his red card against Finland, but he has been included in the squad for this trip. He could return to the starting XI, though there is no confirmation yet. If he plays, San Marino will have a midfielder who can carry the ball forward and get close to the box.
Both teams had the same amount of rest after their first two matches. Belarus travelled to Budapest after away games against Albania and Finland, but will also face Finland in the same city next. San Marino played their first two matches at home and will travel to Tirana after this game. With no spectators, Belarus’s nominal home status is unlikely to bring the usual home-crowd advantage.
2. Match-up analysis
The key question is how well Belarus can turn their possession into good shooting chances. Against Finland, Belarus pressed with their wide midfielders and forwards forming the front line when they were out of possession, then moved forward after winning it back. In possession, Aleksandr Selyava stayed in the holding midfield role while the players ahead of him pushed on. But Belarus had less of the ball than their opponents, so they did not sustain that attacking shape for long. San Marino had 25% and 28% possession in their first two matches. Belarus will need to do more than win the ball through pressing: they must also find ways to move it forward against a side sitting deep.
Coach Roberto Cevoli said he would prefer not to make many changes to the starting XI that faced Albania and that he plans to exploit Belarus’s tactical weaknesses. He did not say what those weaknesses are, but Belarus have no competitive experience under Goncharenko of spending long spells on the ball. That gives San Marino a reason to let them have possession and prioritise protecting the centre. If that is how the game goes, Belarus will get fewer chances to press San Marino’s build-up and attack immediately after winning the ball, as they did against Finland. On the other hand, if San Marino press high from the start, Belarus can try the familiar approach of winning the ball and breaking quickly down the flanks.
Belarus’s best route against a deep defence could be down the left. Full-back Kirill Pechenin has pushed forward in recent games and contributed crosses and shots. He has also linked up on the left with Artem Shumanskiy. San Marino failed to clear Leo Väisänen’s cross cleanly in the opening stages against Finland, then left an attacker unmarked near goal on the next cross. If Belarus can advance down the left and get crosses into the box, they will be targeting a weakness San Marino have already shown.
How effective those crosses are will depend on who is in the box. Vitali Lisakovich often dropped deep to receive the ball against Finland. When he comes short, Belarus may have fewer players in the area to attack a cross. German Barkovskiy created a headed chance against Albania, while 19-year-old Timofey Simanenka is the top scorer in the Belarusian top flight with 10 goals. The threat from the same left-sided cross will vary depending on who starts. Pechenin has also played both matches in the competition, so if he is rested, Belarus’s attack could change from its starting point.
The limitations on the right could affect how San Marino set up. Kalinin mostly stayed back against Finland, while Anton Lukashov ahead of him struggled with the accuracy of his passing and dribbling. If San Marino put extra defenders on Belarus’s left, Belarus will need to create crosses or runs on the other side as well. If the right produces little, Belarus may find it hard to create repeated chances in the box even with plenty of possession. That said, San Marino did not deal cleanly with crosses from the left against Finland, even when they could see them coming. Simply shifting defenders across will not guarantee they avoid conceding.
Set pieces give Belarus another way to score. Against Finland, Kalinin had a shot after a Valeriy Gromyko free kick, and a goal from Selyava after a corner was ruled out for offside. If San Marino foul while trying to stop Belarus advancing in their own half, Belarus could get more free-kick chances. Colombo’s saves will be important if San Marino are to hang on, but if they allow close-range shots in the box after crosses or set pieces, they cannot rely on their goalkeeper alone.
San Marino’s attacks start when they win the ball back. Against Albania, Gabriele Capicchioni had a shot on the counter, and another chance ended with Nanni shooting in front of goal after a Lorenzo Lazzari cross. If Belarus lose possession while Pechenin is pushed forward and the players ahead of Selyava have joined the attack, San Marino will look to get the ball to Nanni or Capicchioni before Belarus can recover their defensive shape. Belarus have already conceded on the counter immediately after an attack broke down against Albania.
Whether those breaks lead to goals depends on Belarus’s reaction after losing the ball. They pressed together with several players after turning it over against Finland. San Marino struggled to play through Albania’s press in midfield early in their last match. So even if San Marino win the ball, a poor first forward pass could leave Nanni with few chances to receive it in the attacking third. San Marino will have a better chance to get forward if Belarus fail to keep their pressing shape because of rotation and fatigue.
Substitutions in the second half could also affect the margin. Goncharenko brought on three attacking players together around the 61st–62nd minute against Finland, and shots from a set piece and off the post followed soon after. San Marino have also made several substitutions around the 60-minute mark in their last two matches. If Belarus keep Melinchenko and Anton Kovalev on the bench, they can add fresh attackers later. If either starts, the first-half setup will be different, but Belarus will not have the same options for a second-half change. San Marino’s heavy second-half concessions in recent games have come in matches where a red card or a short recovery period also played a part, so the timing alone does not mean more goals are certain.
3. Final view and prediction
We expect Belarus to have more of the ball, with San Marino focused on protecting the centre. Belarus can target the box with left-sided crosses and set pieces, and San Marino failed to stop those kinds of attacks early against Finland. Belarus’s counter-pressing after losing the ball should also make it harder for San Marino to launch breaks. Even if San Marino defend better than they did against Albania, we do not expect them to withstand both of these tests for the full match.
The market also makes Belarus the favourites. Where we differ is on the size of the win. The market puts more weight on a wide margin because of the number of goals San Marino have conceded to Finland and Albania, but Belarus have not faced a deep-lying side in a competitive match under Goncharenko. The right-back’s limited attacking contribution could also funnel much of the attack down the left. Backing Belarus to win is a different call from expecting them to create repeated chances in the box and win by a large margin.
Our score predictions are 2–0 or 3–0 to Belarus. If San Marino sit deep, Belarus will look for the opener from a left-sided cross or a set piece, then try to add to the lead with attacking substitutes in the second half. We do not expect San Marino’s counters to produce a goal, given Belarus’s immediate pressure and the visitors’ difficulty with the final pass. If San Marino concede in the first 30 minutes and push forward to get back into the game, Belarus may find further chances and the margin could grow. But if San Marino hold out against left-sided crosses and set pieces to keep it 0–0, Belarus’s lack of experience in possession will become more apparent and the case for this prediction will weaken.
