[2026 UEFA Nations League] North Macedonia vs Scotland: Preview and Analysis Kick-off: 3:45 a.m. on 4 October (Korea time)
North Macedonia and Scotland meet in Skopje at the Toše Proeski National Arena at 3:45 a.m. Korea time on 4 October, in their third match of UEFA Nations League League B Group 1. After two games, Scotland sit third with one point, while North Macedonia are fourth with none. The winner will move ahead in the race for third place, but neither side has scored under its new manager.
1. Match overview and team form
North Macedonia earned promotion from League C last time out with a record of five wins and one draw, but have lost 3-0 to Switzerland and 2-0 to Slovenia in this campaign. Scotland drew 0-0 with Slovenia before losing 3-0 to Switzerland. Switzerland lead the group with six points, with Slovenia second on four. A North Macedonia win would take them above Scotland into third, while a Scotland victory would put them level on points with Slovenia. Third place could mean a relegation play-off, while fourth carries the risk of relegation, so this match could shape both teams’ remaining group campaigns.
The sides’ scoring droughts have different causes. Under Goce Sedloski, North Macedonia have scored no goals and conceded 13 across six matches. They managed just two shots, none on target, against Switzerland in the Nations League. Against Slovenia, they had nine shots but only one on target. Even with Bardhi and Bojan Miovski in the starting line-up against Switzerland, North Macedonia managed just one shot inside the penalty area. It’s a clear sign that changing the striker alone won’t solve the problem of getting the ball into the opposition box.
Scotland have also failed to score in both matches under Sébastien Pocognoli, and their national team’s drought now stands at four games. But in the away draw with Slovenia, where they finished with 11 men, Scotland had 65% possession, 17 shots and five on target. They didn’t have a shot in the first 30 minutes, but Pocognoli adjusted the players’ positions at half-time and Scotland began creating repeated chances inside the box. McBurnie missed a one-on-one with the goalkeeper, while Bowie had three shots after coming on. Their two shots against Switzerland came after Jack Hendry was sent off in the 11th minute, leaving Scotland with 10 men for around 80 minutes. Scotland’s problem looks more like finishing than creating chances.
Neither manager has signalled major changes as the teams prepare for their third match of the international window. Sedloski said he would make two or three changes to North Macedonia’s starting XI, with Bardhi and Miovski expected to return after coming off the bench against Slovenia. Pocognoli said Scotland would make few changes. He has confirmed that goalkeeper Angus Gunn will play, but the rest of the line-up remains a prediction until it is officially announced.
Overview Expected formations: North Macedonia 4-2-3-1 / Scotland 3-4-1-2 Expected attacking players: North Macedonia — Bardhi, Elmas and Miovski / Scotland — Gilmour, McGinn, McBurnie and Bowie Key factors: North Macedonia — Alioski’s availability, Nikolov released from the squad / Scotland — Hendry suspended, attacking players missing
Scotland will have to change their centre-back pairing because of Hendry’s suspension. The expected back three of Binks, McKenna and Welsh played together against Switzerland, but Scotland were down to 10 men and sitting deep for much of that match. We haven’t yet seen how they work together with 11 players and a higher defensive line. Up front, Scott McTominay was left out while recovering from heart surgery, and Che Adams and Lawrence Shankland are also missing through injury. North Macedonia will have to rely more on their younger midfielders after Boban Nikolov was released from the squad. Ezgjan Alioski is a doubt, with reports suggesting both that he has a calf injury and that he has returned to training.
Recent home and away records need to be viewed in context. North Macedonia’s last five home games have brought one win, three draws and one defeat, but their only home match under Sedloski was the 3-0 loss to Switzerland. Scotland have won three, drawn two and lost one of their last six away games, keeping five clean sheets, but most of those results came under former manager Steve Clarke. The teams met four times between 2008 and 2013, with Scotland winning twice, drawing once and losing once. It has been 13 years since their last meeting, and both teams have changed managers this year, so their games against the same opponents in this group are a better guide to their current level than those old results.
Both teams played on 30 September, Korea time, and have had three days to rest. Rain isn’t forecast in Skopje around kick-off, and winds should be light. Individual workloads are another matter. If Billy Gilmour starts after driving Scotland’s central attack in the second half against Slovenia, it will be his third start in eight days. Bardhi and Miovski, by contrast, played just 28 and nine minutes respectively in the Slovenia match.
2. Match-up analysis
Early on, a key question will be how Scotland’s press deals with North Macedonia’s build-up. Pocognoli said Scotland struggled to find their pressing positions in the first half against Slovenia when the opposition switched to a back four in possession. Scotland dropped deep and didn’t manage a shot in the first 30 minutes. After Pocognoli moved his midfielders around at half-time, they pressed higher and were able to press again immediately after losing the ball.
North Macedonia are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1, with two holding midfielders in front of the centre-backs. If they do, Scotland will again face the kind of build-up that caused problems in the first half against Slovenia. If Atanasov and Gjasula can play through Scotland’s first press and get the ball to Bardhi, Elmas and Mitrovski could find room to advance behind Scotland’s wing-backs. Scotland allowed runs in behind their high defensive line in the first half against Slovenia. In the red-card incident against Switzerland, a quick link through the middle also left Hendry having to deal with an opposing forward in open space.
Whether North Macedonia can make use of those routes is another question. They had 43% possession against Switzerland but managed just two shots. Their attacking output increased against Slovenia, yet their two starting forwards didn’t register a shot. If Scotland start with the pressing positions they used in the second half against Slovenia, it could make it harder for North Macedonia’s young midfield to play forward to Bardhi. If North Macedonia spring a surprise and use a back three, that could also change the numbers involved in the press.
When Scotland have the ball, their attacking routes will be decisive. Sedloski said North Macedonia would prepare for Scotland’s long balls and deliveries into the box. Scotland have used Robertson and Hickey as advanced wing-backs to cross for McBurnie to compete in the air. If North Macedonia keep both holding midfielders in front of their penalty area, Scotland will have to play the ball into a crowded defensive area. Hendry’s absence also leaves Scotland with one fewer player to challenge for attacking set pieces.
North Macedonia should be more wary of Scotland’s short passing through the middle. Slovenia scored both their goals against North Macedonia with passes played between the defenders. Scotland also created a chance in the second half against Slovenia when Gilmour moved higher, exchanged passes with McBurnie and then took a shot. If North Macedonia’s two holding midfielders stay in front of the box, they can limit the space for Gilmour and McGinn to receive the ball. But if one pushes forward to support North Macedonia’s attack, Scotland could find room to play through the defence behind him. That’s why it matters whether the proactive approach Sedloski has promised includes pushing his midfielders forward.
What North Macedonia do after conceding could affect the margin. In their three competitive matches under Sedloski, they have conceded again after going behind each time. Against Slovenia, they went behind in the 55th minute, brought on Bardhi and Maleski six minutes later, then conceded again in the 82nd minute after a pass split the defence. That sequence alone doesn’t mean the same will happen here. But if North Macedonia fall behind at home while still on zero points, they may push their midfielders forward, leaving space behind for Scotland’s attackers to run into. A late opening goal would also leave less time to add another.
Bardhi’s set pieces offer North Macedonia one way to change the pattern. One of the more dangerous attacks under Sedloski came from Bardhi’s free kick against the Republic of Ireland, which was saved by the goalkeeper. Scotland will have to defend free kicks and corners without Hendry. For North Macedonia to win free kicks in the attacking half, though, they first need to beat the press and move the ball forward. At the other end, Dimitrievski made seven saves against Switzerland and could frustrate Scotland again. That’s why Scotland scoring is no certainty, even if they create chances like they did against Slovenia.
3. Verdict and prediction
We expect Scotland to have more of the ball and spend more time attacking in North Macedonia’s half. North Macedonia managed just one shot inside the box in their recent home match against Switzerland, even with their key forwards starting. Scotland created chances through central combinations after their half-time adjustments against Slovenia, when they had 11 players on the pitch. Slovenia also scored twice against North Macedonia with passes through the defence, which makes the prospect of Gilmour and McGinn receiving the ball centrally a promising route to goal for Scotland.
Our predicted score is North Macedonia 0-2 Scotland. We expect Scotland to adjust their pressing positions, create more through the middle after the break and score the opener before the 60th minute. If North Macedonia push their midfield forward in search of an equaliser, Scotland could attack the space left behind and look for a second. North Macedonia have repeatedly conceded again after going behind in recent competitive matches, and Sedloski has also made attacking changes early when chasing a game. Scotland’s forwards, however, have also struggled to turn their chances into goals during this international window.
The market leans towards a narrow Scotland win, citing North Macedonia’s attacking struggles and Scotland’s away record under former manager Clarke. We agree with the result, but base our view of the current Scotland side on the chances they created in the second half against Slovenia rather than their previous away record. We see a bigger winning margin because North Macedonia may leave space for further Scotland attacks when pushing forward after conceding. The timing of the first goal is crucial to this prediction. If Scotland don’t score until after the 70th minute, or fail to score at all, a two-goal win becomes difficult to see.
