Zephyr

This is a match between the table's third and second teams that looks closer on chances than the standings suggest. One side has the results and a long unbeaten run; the other has the shots, the rest and the home ground. The question is whether finishing that has run well above the chance quality can keep carrying the visitors through a short week.

This is a match between a rested, defence-first home side and a visitor whose week has been all upheaval. Tenerife have had nearly four days to recover and no travel. Baskonia have a new coach with two practices behind him, have just lost a scorer, and are coming off two EuroLeague games in three days. The gap is not huge, but it points one way.

This looks like a tight, low-event game between two sides that are closer than the table makes them seem. The home team's position rests on finishing rather than on controlling matches, and the visitors bring a different, counter-based profile with a proven scorer up front. The most likely shape is a cautious opening and a result decided by one or two moments late on.

Two matches, two gaps that look structural rather than a passing run. In Chofu the home side has the thinnest attack in the league and a brand-new coach; in Morumbis the visitor has hardly scored away from home all season. In both, the gap in how the teams actually create and concede chances is bigger than the table suggests.

Paris are the home favourites here, but they are not a team that tends to win comfortably. Their recent wins have been tight and their defence keeps giving up points, so the question for me is the size of the margin, not who is better on paper. Lyon-Villeurbanne are short-handed, yet they have a record of staying close in this matchup.

Tortona come into their first home Eurocup game on the back of two defeats, and the problem is at the back. The coach and the guard both say the defence and the rebounding have been poor since the season started, and that is exactly the kind of weakness an athletic, open-court team goes after. That is what my read of this match turns on.

I think this game stays closer than the market expects. Hiroshima comes in hot, but Ibaraki's recent losses were narrow ones against opponents the market clearly preferred, and the form numbers for both sides point to a tight game at Ibaraki's home arena.

This one looks like a points game to me. Both Osaka and Yokohama have been in high-scoring games lately, and when these two meet the scoreboard usually runs past where the market sets the number. The only real worry is Osaka's cold shooting, but a slow Osaka still leaves Yokohama putting up 80-plus.

KCC is the champion and the clear favourite, but this is a spot where the name is bigger than the recent record against this opponent. KoGas has beaten them in Busan before, including a 13-point win in the cup just over a week ago, and KCC's good results this season have come away from home. I think the gap between these two will be tighter than the market thinks.

Two teams coming off a rough week, but the reasons behind the losses are not the same. Adelaide's recent defeats read more like shooting swings than a team falling apart, and that is what I am leaning on here.

Two games where the form on paper hides a thinner gap. Chicago against Vancouver is a meeting of two squads stripped by international duty, and Chicago have been hard to beat. Mexico against Chile pairs a home side that rarely loses at home with a visitor that has struggled badly on the road, even if Mexico's own recent run is shaky.