Two matches where the stronger side controls the chances and the weaker side has a thin way to score. In both, the table, the shot quality and the defensive records point the same way, and the home team's route depends on one set piece or counter.
Wrexham against Wolves: Wolves sit second and Wrexham sixteenth. Over the last ten, Wolves create far better chances than they allow, win the corner count heavily and have kept four clean sheets. Wrexham have been dangerous at home recently, with a 4-1 and a 2-0 win, but their away numbers and low possession show a side that needs a mistake or a set piece. Wolves' flagged absences have been listed for several games and the team kept winning. That's why I'm siding with Wolves not losing, with the draw returned if Wrexham hold on.
Cagliari against Frosinone: Cagliari score under one goal a game, create few shots on target and are without their main forward, who has been out since mid-October. They have lost four of their last five. Frosinone fire about seven shots on target a game and score freely, though they leak goals and have drawn three of four away. I'm siding with Frosinone not losing, because their chance volume meets a defence that allows a lot, and a draw is returned.
