Perth's pressure and Newcastle's midfield circulation should make the first clean exit an important moment. Torino can attack Lecce's opening passes, while Lecce can answer through restarts and the space behind advancing wingbacks. Both games should be shaped by what each team creates after the first goal, not just who scores it.
Perth's Kucharski and Kuzamba can turn a Jets buildup error into service for Colakovski, and the Kukucka and Ellis combination has already supplied a late finish. Lawrence is suspended after playing in the Adelaide match, but those other routes were present in the same game. Newcastle's Clough and Lolley can feed Wood or Vergos if the Jets escape the press; their recent chances have not been matched by a reliable next defensive stop. I see Perth finding the decisive home finish and am siding with Perth Glory.
Torino have forwards who can punish a loose Lecce first pass, but their recent chase against Frosinone produced few clean finishes and their Como lead fell to late wide service. Lecce can use Gallo's restarts, centre-back second contact and a counter into Torino's wingback space to keep answering. Mandragora has not played since October, while the possible Lecce returnees have unconfirmed minutes; the observed restart and counter routes carry the case. I'm siding with Lecce to keep the final margin tight.
