This KBL game puts Samsung's post game right against Wonju DB's weakest spot. Without Ellenson, DB is a guard team with one temporary, foul-prone centre, and three different opponents have already pounded that frontcourt on the glass in the last two weeks. DB's answer is perimeter volume and free throws from rested guards. Expect a single-digit game decided by who controls possessions.
First a correction to the usual framing: Samsung is the one at the top, 10-1, while DB is fourth at 6-5. Samsung wins through Kerem Kanter in the post. He scored 27 with 10 free-throw attempts at Wonju in October and 32 with 12 rebounds and 10 attempts at Mobis on 11-05. McCullar adds a second big on the boards, and domestic guards like Lee Kwan-hee and Han Ho-bin close games.
DB without Ellenson looks like a different team. He is out for this game, according to a Jumpball report from 11-05, and missed DB's last game too. Kang Sang-jae hasn't appeared in DB's last three box scores either. In this setup DB lost the glass 26-35 at JKJ, 32-50 at KoGas and 26-37 at LG, and gave up 90 to 98 points in four of five games. Williams, the stand-in centre, fouled out at LG and had four fouls at KCC.
The key matchup is Kanter against Williams. If Williams picks up early fouls, DB has to use smaller players at centre against two Samsung bigs, and the rebounding gap of the last two weeks should repeat. DB's best weapon is real: Alvano gets to the line, and Lee Yong-woo and Lee Jung-hyun can take a lot of threes, which is how DB won at LG despite losing the boards. But DB doesn't force turnovers (5 to 7 steals a game), so Samsung's main weakness, losing the ball against pressure, doesn't get tested.
The first half should be close, with DB's fresh guards pushing early threes. Samsung's margin usually builds in the second and third quarters through Kanter, and the third quarter is where Williams' foul count matters most. Samsung already won at Wonju when Ellenson played and scored 29. DB is favoured on home court, six days of rest and an old head-to-head record built mostly with different rosters. That's why I'm siding with Samsung on the road.
