Two home sides who should control their matches against opponents that arrive thin and tired. In both games the chance numbers favour the hosts, and the squad news widens that gap rather than closing it.
Wolves v Portsmouth: Wolves have been the better chance-maker at Molineux, about 1.3 expected goals ahead per game over four league home matches, while Portsmouth have been level on the road over five. Over the last ten the gap is smaller but still points Wolves' way. Portsmouth are missing seven players and have two more doubtful, mostly in central defence and up front, and this is their third match in six days. Wolves are without Jimenez, which thins the attack and shrinks the home margin, but it stays positive. A draw is also less common in these two teams' games than in the league as a whole, so the match should be decided rather than stalled. I expect Wolves to hold the ball, take their time and find a goal or two from open play or a corner. That's why I'm siding with Wolves to win.
Porto v PSV: the long-run numbers between these two are level, so I am not pretending there is a quality gap. The edge is the current state of the squads. PSV have no fit senior striker, with Plea, Pepi, Lammers and Ouaissa out, and Schouten and Wanner are gone from midfield with a few more in doubt. They also come in on about three days of rest against Porto's six. Over their last four PSV have been losing the chance battle, while Porto at home have been positive. Porto should have the territory and keep putting crosses and set pieces into a tired, patched-up PSV side, and one or two goals will be enough. That's why I'm siding with Porto to win at home.
