Cambuur's restored central attacking roles give this match a clear contest inside the penalty area. Willem II have found goals through midfield arrivals but struggled to defend the delivery that follows the first attack. The important comparison is the visitors' connected supply against the home side's organisation around second balls.
Binder's return to centre forward and El Arguioui's position behind him improved Cambuur's attacking connections against Zwolle. Against AZ, Ceka supplied Binder in the box, while Van Duijl's recovery helped release Hamache for another goal. Those are distinct ways to reach receivers against a Willem II defence that conceded both a second-ball finish and a subsequent cross at Sparta.
Bouah's suspension changes Cambuur's defensive flank, while their expected attacking core comes from the previous starting side. Willem II's outfield absences largely continue the conditions already present at Sparta. Didillon-Hodl has medical clearance to return to training, with the goalkeeper choice still open, and Koster has said his first match will involve limited changes.
I expect Willem II to begin with home intensity and Cambuur to use Binder as the central reference for the next attack. The away side's established receiving roles carry more weight for me than an immediate repair under the new home coach. That's why I'm siding with Cambuur, with the draw protected.
