I expect a tight, scrappy game at the Barradão. Vitoria get plenty of shots but very few good chances, and Chapecoense on the road are happy to sit deep and play on the break. Put those two habits together and I don't see many clear openings. What decides it for me is how little real danger Vitoria create, even when they're on top.
Take their last league game, the 1-3 home loss to Cruzeiro. Vitoria had 21 shots, 13 of them from outside the box, and all of that added up to only 0.50 xG. Over their last ten matches they've averaged 0.6 goals a game and scored more than once just one time.
At home Vitoria are a different, tighter side. They've conceded 12 in 14 home league games, and their recent home wins over Gremio and Botafogo both finished 1-0. The back four that started against Cruzeiro (Cacá, Luan Cândido, Jamerson and Mateusinho) is expected to start again, so the long list of defenders carrying knocks doesn't touch the first-choice line.
Chapecoense are bottom of the table, and away from home they've scored 11 in 14. In games like their trips to Atletico-MG and Corinthians they had well under 40 percent of the ball and soaked up pressure. If they sit back against a home side that shoots from distance, I'd expect a narrow scoreline rather than an open one.
Both teams are also coming off a long gap since their last league game, which rarely makes for a fast start.
