Valencia want to turn their home energy into an early press, while Villarreal can use that aggression to find space beyond the first line. The visitors have been creating chances even when their finishing has stalled. Valencia have shown a later wide response, so the first goal should change the space available at both ends.
Villarreal made 20 shots and 2.15 expected goals against compact Elche, with enough receiving options to keep entering the box. Valencia held Athletic scoreless but had trouble turning their own entries into finished chances, and Racing put 11 shots on target against them. Villarreal's Pepe and Romero also missed the Liverpool match, so their absence does not remove a newly proven route; Saliba came off at halftime there, and the back line may have to use another pairing. Valencia's named absentees were already missing in their latest match.
Valencia can send Guerra and Otorbi forward as the game opens, while Villarreal have Ayoze and Oluwaseyi to keep attacking after their first spell. Villarreal's repeated first-half entries and their late replacement route give them the stronger path to finish the match ahead. That's why I'm siding with Villarreal to win.
