Two J1 League games where the visitors carry the better underlying numbers. In both, the home side struggles to create enough to punish a team that controls the ball and concedes little.
Nagasaki vs Hiroshima: Hiroshima out-shot and out-created their opponents in the two games with shot data, about 17.5 shots to 6.5 and 1.4 expected goals to 0.5. Nagasaki score under a goal a game and concede around one and a half. Hiroshima lean on possession and early goals; they won 3-0 at Kyoto and 6-1 against Cerezo. Nagasaki's way back is a set piece or a counter, but their attack has little depth behind the two forwards flagged as doubtful, and that flag is a week old, so I am not leaning on it. I expect Hiroshima to score before the break and then manage the game, which is why I am on the visitors winning with some margin.
Shimizu vs Machida: Machida are second, unbeaten away across their last eight league-window games with 18 scored and 6 conceded, and they concede about 0.7 a game. They control territory and win corners, with a long-throw and set-piece route against a deep block. Shimizu score under a goal a game and drew seven of their last twelve at home, so a draw is the real alternative, which is why I want the draw cushion. No absences are listed for either side and I am not relying on any. Machida have won their last two away games 1-0 and a home game 3-0 on short rest, so I am siding with Machida.
