Two J1 games where the table leaders go on the road against sides that struggle to score and give up a lot of the ball and the chances. In both, the home team's route is narrow: sit deep, wait for a set piece or a counter, and hope the game stays level.
Nagasaki v Hiroshima: Nagasaki are 15th, scoring under a goal a game over their last ten, and their one measured chance row showed them badly outplayed even in a 1-1 draw. Hiroshima top the table with a goal difference of +19 against -7 over ten league games, and in the two games with shot data they out-shot opponents 17.5 to 6.5. They also won both meetings this year. Nagasaki's draws are real, but they are low-chance 1-1s. The lineup is not out and the absence flags are old single-source rows, so I leave them out of the weight. I'm siding with Hiroshima to win.
Shimizu v Machida: Machida are second and have conceded only 0.7 a game over 20, while scoring 1.9. Shimizu score about 0.9 a game and draw a lot at home, seven of their last twelve. That level outcome is exactly why I want Machida with the draw refunded: the question is whether the better side avoids defeat, and the possession and shots-on-target edge points to Machida. That's why I'm on Machida away with the draw as a refund.
