Udinese arrive in a structural slump rather than a bad run of fixtures. They haven't scored in three home league games, and the last two produced very little in front of goal. Both ends of the team are thin this week. Roma come with an attack that has kept scoring without three of its usual starters.
Roma win by holding the ball, pressing man to man and filling the box. Over their last ten games they've averaged close to nineteen shots, and the current unit put four past Cagliari and three at Napoli, all without Dybala, Pellegrini and Kone. Udinese have lost Bayo and Gueye up front. By Runjaic's own words, Zaniolo and Davis aren't fully fit. Lecce, hardly a strong side, put eleven shots on target past them at the Friuli.
The key matchup is Roma's crosses and corners against a reshuffled Udinese back three. Alaba, Solet and Zanoli are all out, Bertola is just back from an injury, and this back line has already given up two corner goals to Lecce and a penalty from a corner sequence at Parma. Roma win plenty of corners and have scored late from set pieces and crosses through Hermoso and Balerdi.
Udinese do have one route. Gollini, in goal for the injured Svilar, has leaked chances in each of his last three games, so a Zaniolo run or a Davis header could find a way. But that is one chance, not a pattern, for a home attack that has created very little lately.
The flow I expect: Roma have most of the ball in the first hour against a five-man block. If they score before the break, Udinese have to come out, and Roma's bench has kept adding goals after the hour, with late strikes against Cagliari and at Napoli. That's why I'm siding with Roma to win this by a clear margin.
