Udinese against Milan sets a home side that has lost five in a row against an away side whose unbeaten league record hides how little it has created on the road. The detail that matters is who scored Milan's away goals, and that those players are now injured. Udinese have struggled when they have to keep the ball, but here they won't have to. That changes how the game is likely to play out.
Udinese's losing run is real. They have conceded big chances in all five defeats, and it happened both when they had the ball (Cagliari, Torino, Lecce at home, including two goals from corners) and when they sat deeper (Inter, Lazio). The difference is in what they offer going forward. When they had to carry the ball they created almost nothing, but sitting deep at Inter they still scored three. Runjaic has said his plan here is to defend well and then use the spaces, so Udinese go back to the role in which they have actually scored.
Milan away from home in the league have been hard to beat but rarely dangerous: one shot-quality figure close to zero at Juventus, little more at Sassuolo, and two goals down at half-time at Lazio before Moreira rescued a draw with two goals. Moreira, Rabiot and Chukwueze scored or set up all of Milan's away league goals, and all three are out. Rabiot and Moreira both played on Thursday, so these are new losses that none of Milan's recent numbers include. Gila and Gabbia are also missing, which leaves no senior cover at centre-back.
The key matchups: Pulisic and Ramos against a stand-in Udinese back line without Alaba or Zanoli is Milan's best route, along with set pieces aimed at a defence that has leaked from corners. At the other end, Davis and Ekkelenkamp run at a Milan back line that played more than an hour with ten men in England three days earlier, while Udinese have had a full week. Zaniolo is set to come off the bench, just when Milan's thin squad has few changes to answer with.
The likely flow is Milan holding the ball against a mid-to-low block, with the game level well into the second half. Milan's away games this season have turned late, and if it is still level after the hour, the tired legs and short bench are on Milan's side of the pitch, not Udinese's. A draw is the most natural result when a deep block meets a Milan side short of runners, and Udinese have their own way to score.
That's why I'm siding with Udinese not losing this one at home.
