Two different matches, two different stories. In the Netherlands, two top-four sides with high shot volume and thin defences meet three days after European nights. In England, a home side with a strong record faces a visitor whose midfield has been stripped.
Twente against Ajax: both teams play with the ball and create a lot. Twente average heavy shot numbers and Ajax have scored 18 and conceded 4 in five away games. The last six meetings between them averaged 3.5 goals. Ajax are missing full-backs, Twente's defender Lemkin is flagged, and both sides played on Thursday, so rotation and tired legs tend to open a game rather than close it. I'm leaning toward goals in this one, with the refund on exactly three goals covering the middle outcome.
Brighton against Brentford: Brighton have scored 13 and conceded 1 in four home league games and kept seven clean sheets in their last ten. Brentford are without Yarmolyuk through suspension and are short of other midfielders, have no away win in six and have drawn four of those. Brighton are tired after Thursday in Getafe, but they have already won through their forward absences and even beat City while out-shot. That's why I'm siding with Brighton to win, with the stake returned if it ends level.
