Trabzonspor at home under Reis are built to absorb a possession side and hurt it in transition, and Freiburg's away attack has been thin against decent opponents. In Athens, Panathinaikos dominate the ball in Europe but have conceded in every home game of the campaign. CSKA under their new coach come to shoot, not to sit.
Trabzonspor v Freiburg. Reis's side have won every game since he took over. The best match to compare is the home game against possession-heavy Besiktas: Trabzonspor had 38% of the ball, won 2-0 and created 2.41 xG to 1.32. That is the shape Freiburg will bring with their high press and corner volume. Trabzonspor have conceded once in six home games, and after scoring they protect leads with a deep block that gave up almost nothing after the break against Hearts and Besiktas.
The key matchup is Freiburg's press against the home build-up. Onuachu came back as a starter at the weekend and gives a long outlet that skips the press, and Salah and Muci attack the space behind the full-backs. Freiburg's away output against good sides has been modest: 0.83 xG at Monaco and two shots on target at Augsburg. They also lose Osterhage from the pressing midfield. The home attack is short of bodies, with Franculino and Aral out and Cabral suspended, so this may stay tight for a long time. Even so, the home defence carries the read. I'm siding with Trabzonspor, with the draw covered.
Panathinaikos v CSKA Sofia. Panathinaikos's volume doesn't depend on the injured Ounahi: they had 31 shots to 4 against Borac and scored in all four European home games. Their weak spot in Europe is letting a goal in while they control the game, often late. They did it in all four of those home games, including from almost nothing against Borac. CSKA under Gisdol had 21 shots against Monaco and 18 at Nordsjaelland, scoring in both. They have a settled Sensi-to-Godoy link, Zwarts fit again and set-piece volume. I expect Panathinaikos to score and CSKA to find at least one finish, so I'm on goals at both ends.
