Two B.League games where the home side's numbers at its own gym are weaker than its reputation suggests. One is about a visitor with a better shooting base, the other about how big a margin a defence-first home team can really produce.
Toyama against Ibaraki: Ibaraki shoots better from the field and much better from the free-throw line, and has a positive points difference against Toyama's negative one. Toyama's coach said after the last game that the squad is physically strained after three games in about eleven days, and Toyama has scored only about 74 a game at home despite scoring far more on the road. Ibaraki leans on Vic Law and a defence that held the later quarters under 20 against Chiba. I'm siding with Ibaraki to win away.
Utsunomiya against Kawasaki: Utsunomiya is a low-scoring, defence-first side whose home margin over the last twenty games is actually negative, and it has lost five of eight games as the market favourite. It is also without Tabuse and Hoshikawa in the guard group, both absent in its last two games. Kawasaki is genuinely weaker and has unexplained absences, so I expect Utsunomiya to win the game most likely, but not by a wide gap. That's why I'm siding with Kawasaki to keep it within a touchdown-sized margin.
