Two matches where the table tells a different story from the chance maps. Both feature leaky defences and attacks that create more than their results suggest.
Torino v Monza: Monza are a high-event side, with four or more goals in seven of their last ten and plenty of shots on target. Torino give up a lot of shots and are without their first-choice keeper and now a defender. Monza lack two centre-backs of their own, so both back lines are thin. The game should be open, with chances at both ends. That's why I'm backing plenty of goals.
Ipswich v Nottingham Forest: Forest sit near the bottom, but they out-shoot opponents and create about as much as they concede, while scoring far less than those chances deserve. Ipswich concede big volume and heavy chance quality at home. Forest's striker has been out for two games already, so the recent blanks include that. I expect the chances to come and some of them to go in. That's why I'm siding with Forest, with the draw refunded.
