Both matches share a shape: a home side whose underlying numbers are better than its recent results, facing a visitor that leaks chances and is short of forwards. In each, the home team should control the ball and the territory, and the visitor has few reliable ways to score.
Stuttgart first. At home they hold around 58% of the ball, take nearly 18 shots and create about 2.1 expected goals a game, while their league results (two wins in six, two 0-1 losses) undersell that. Gladbach sit bottom with five straight defeats, 20 goals conceded in six league games and roughly 2.3 expected goals against per away game. Two centre-backs and three forwards are listed out, and most of those absences were already there for the last two losses, so this is a known, ongoing weakness. Stuttgart's centre of the pitch should dominate a depleted Gladbach midfield, and an early goal would force Gladbach to open up. That's why I'm siding with Stuttgart to win by a clear margin.
Now Alaves against Malaga. Malaga are winless, concede close to six shots on target a game, create only about 0.8 expected goals themselves, and are missing both strikers and a centre-back. Alaves have lost recent games with content level or better, so the results look harsher than the play. Alaves should sit in a mid-block, hit on transitions and set pieces, and need only one or two good chances against this defence. I'm backing Alaves to win at home.
