A high-event match between a Stuttgart side that scores and concedes a lot and an Atletico side that wins by owning the ball and piling up shots and corners. The question is whether Stuttgart's depleted back line can survive that volume.
Stuttgart's headline home streak is not what it looks like: the two most recent home wins were friendlies against lower-division sides, and in competitive play they have lost three of their last four league games, including a defeat at Hamburg in which they had the better chances. They allow about two expected goals and nearly seventeen shots a game, and Zagadou, Diehl and Tomas are out, with the rest of the centre-back group in doubt.
Atletico over their last ten create about 1.7 expected goals and allow about 1.1, with a shot margin of more than six per game, against a level chance balance for Stuttgart. Romero is a fresh loss, but Hancko and Pubill cover him, and Koke has already been missing for two wins. Atletico's rows do include weak opposition, so the gap is moderate, not huge. Draws have been rare in both sides' recent games and in this league phase.
I expect Atletico to keep about sixty percent of the ball, win a lot of corners and wear down a thin Stuttgart centre. Stuttgart will have their counter moments, but that's why I'm siding with Atletico Madrid to win away.
