This match looks like a tight, low-chance game rather than the mismatch the names suggest. Sturm Graz defend a compact home block that has hardly been broken at the Merkur-Arena lately. Marseille will have the ball, but in Europe they have struggled to turn possession into clear chances. One goal, or none at all, is likely to decide it.
Sturm under Ingolitsch give up the ball and defend two banks of four, attacking through Seidl's crossing and Diakite's running. At home that shape has conceded four goals in their last nine games, and they kept clean sheets in their last two home European games. Marseille under Genesio average around 55% possession but allow a lot of chances against them, and in this competition they have created very little, with one of the lowest big-chance counts in the league phase.
The key duel is Marseille's build-up against Sturm's screening midfield, with Hojbjerg expected on the bench. Seidl and Diakite, who scored five goals in his last two league games, run at a Marseille back line without Cornelius, who is out long-term. Marseille's best way through is out wide with Paixao and Gouiri.
Sturm's absence list looks dramatic, but most of it is old news. Those players also missed the 6-1 derby win and the 2-0 at Austria Vienna, so the outfield XI available now is the one that just won. The real change is in goal: Khudyakov broke his leg in the derby, and Helac came on and kept a clean sheet.
Expect Marseille possession and few clear chances in the first half, with Sturm looking to break on turnovers. If Sturm score first, Marseille's problem against organised blocks keeps a lead or a draw alive. That's why I'm siding with Sturm Graz not to lose at home.
