Both matches pair a side with real control of the chances against an opponent that leaks. In one, the weaker team is thin in midfield and concedes a lot away from home. In the other, the favourite owns the shot and chance-quality gap against a defence giving up more than two a game.
Stoke vs Preston: Stoke sit ninth and play at home; Preston are 24th, have conceded about two goals a game and lost four of their last five away. Preston's midfield is missing three players who have already been out for several games, so their form already reflects it. Stoke create little themselves, so I expect a tight home win built on one or two goals rather than a rout. That's why I'm siding with Stoke at home.
Levante vs Atletico Madrid: Atletico are second, with a clear edge in shots, shots on target and chance quality over the last ten games, while Levante are 14th and concede about two and a half a game. Koke has been out for five straight matches, so that absence is already built into Atletico's numbers. Levante's best hope is a counter or a set piece, but their defensive record makes an Atletico goal or two likely, most often by a single goal. I'm backing Atletico to win.
