Both of these games come down to the same thing: one side creates more than it gives away, and the other leaks big chances it can't make up for at the other end. St. Louis create more than they allow at home, and they meet a Galaxy defence that has been giving up quality chances to everyone, weak sides included. In Mexico City, Cruz Azul's possession and shot volume run into a Pumas side that makes very little against organised opponents. In both games I'm reading chance quality under the current coaches, not results or the table.
St. Louis vs LA Galaxy. Both coaches are settled and both teams come off the same international break, so neither side has a preparation edge. St. Louis win through a man-to-man press, which Galaxy coach Vanney has pointed out himself. They give up plenty of shots, but mostly poor ones, and their own chances are clearly better. The Galaxy's problem is at the back: across their recent stat games they have conceded big chances again and again, at San Diego, against New England, at Vancouver and against Seattle. Away from home they have been scoring well under a goal and a half a game while conceding more than two.
The key matchup is the St. Louis press against the Galaxy build-out of Haak, Glesnes, Sergi Roberto and Ruiz. That unit loses the ball and its shape too often. Reus is the Galaxy's answer, but Lozano (hamstring) and Puig (knee) are both out, so he is close to the only proven creator left. Klauss came off injured in the Colorado game and his fitness is uncertain. The St. Louis absences are fringe players, and the regular core should start.
I expect St. Louis to press early and score first from a turnover or a wide delivery. The Galaxy will then have to open up, and that leaves transition space for a second home goal. That's why I'm siding with St. Louis to win this one.
Pumas vs Cruz Azul. Solari and Huiqui have both been in charge for the whole Apertura, so all ten games reflect these two sides as they are now. The table makes it look close, but the content doesn't. Cruz Azul keep the ball, take about eighteen shots a game and create clearly more than they concede. Pumas create about a goal's worth of chances per game and concede more than that. Against organised sides like Monterrey, Tijuana, Chivas and Atlas, their attack produced very little.
The matchup that matters is Cruz Azul's front pair of Ibáñez and Gabriel Fernández, with Paradela between the lines, against a Pumas centre-back pairing that has given up big chances in three of its last five games. Pumas get Vite, Carrasquilla and Robert Morales back, but they lose Córdova, their most technical midfielder, so Cruz Azul's midfield should control possession. Pumas will try to go direct in the rain and look for transitions or penalties.
Cruz Azul do let teams back into games, as the Toluca comeback from two goals down showed. Even so, the main shape of this match is Cruz Azul controlling the ball and out-creating a home side that can't keep up. That's why I'm siding with Cruz Azul in this one.
