LG's record hides the team that actually takes the floor in this match. Most of their losses came without Asem Marei or without Yoo Ki-sang, and both are now back. Seoul Knights have only two league games of evidence and a ball-security problem in one of them. The likely shape is a tight glass battle that stays within a possession or two late.
LG win through Marei. He controls the defensive glass, wins second chances and passes out of the post, while Yang Joon-seok, Yoo and Goodwin protect the ball and shoot around 37 percent from three. Without him the glass collapsed in the losses to Samsung and KoGas. In his return at Mobis he played 37 minutes and pulled down 34 rebounds, though that came against a frontcourt missing its centre for most of the game, so I discount it.
SK are built on Jamil Warney with Isaiah Hicks as a second import big. They beat JKJ by winning the glass 40-26, but JKJ were missing their bigs, and SK still turned it over 18 times in that game. Against Sono they protected the ball and lost to hot three-point shooting.
The key matchup is Marei against Warney. Historically Marei is the defender who takes away Warney's post game, and in the quarters where each side has one import on the floor, LG should hold the boards. SK's best stretch is the second and third quarters, when Warney and Hicks play together against Marei and the guard Goodwin. That is where an SK run is most likely.
LG's short rest after a road game is a real factor late, and SK's home court counts. But LG's low turnover numbers keep their possession count level, and SK's perimeter has leaked threes in both games, which gives Yoo and Goodwin room. I expect this to stay close into the fourth quarter. That's why I'm siding with LG, taking the points on the road.
