Two Nations League games where the chance counts tell a different story from the results. Scotland out-created Slovenia and North Macedonia by a wide margin in their last two away games without Adams, Shankland or McTominay, and the 0-0 in Ljubljana was finishing and a goalkeeper, not a lack of chances. In Luxembourg, the home side look thinner than the price suggests once the suspensions and injuries are counted, and Bulgaria did better against the same opponents.
Scotland first. In Slovenia they had 17 shots to 4 and an xG edge of roughly 2.16 to 0.47. Ure hit the far post, Oblak took the ball off McBurney one on one, and Bowie missed late. Then in Skopje it was 24 shots to 6 and nine on target to none in a 2-0. Both games were played with the same forwards missing, so the injury list is already inside the sample. Slovenia took four shots in the first meeting and are without Sesko, Prelec and Zaletel. The one bad Scotland night this autumn was at home to Switzerland, a much better side.
Luxembourg against Bulgaria is a quieter read. Luxembourg's 2-1 win in Plovdiv was level on xG, and both goals came from a defensive deflection and a goalkeeper error at a corner, not from open play. Over their last eight with stats they average about 0.5 xG and they have not scored in their last four home games in that sample. Centre-back Mahmutovic and midfielder Barreiro are suspended, and Sinani and Jans are injured.
The common opponents point the same way. Estonia beat Luxembourg 1-0 away, but at Bulgaria they drew 0-0 while being out-shot 17 to 6. Both sides lost 0-3 to Iceland. Bulgaria have an interim coach after the Estonia game and have not looked settled, so this is a read on shape and chances, not a call that they are good. Two weak sides, few goals expected, and the home team's usual route to goals is missing key players.
That is why the two games sit together in one slip. Both rest on the same idea: the scoreline from last time is not the best guide, the chance structure is.
