Two matches, two cagey structures where one side holds a measurable edge in how the game is likely to be built.
In Daegu the deciding fifth game of the KBO playoff series is a rematch of the Game 2 starters. Samsung's Jurado went 6.2 innings and allowed two runs that day, and Samsung scored four in a single inning against KIA's Oller, who also carried a 5.79 ERA against this club in the regular season. Scoring in this series comes in clusters, and the early innings are where Samsung found its runs. KIA's late bullpen breakthrough in Game 4 and Samsung's recent errors are the counterweight, but the pitching matchup and home field tilt it slightly. That's why I'm siding with the Samsung Lions to win.
In Pohang, both sides sit in the relegation group and neither controls the ball. Pohang's content is poor: around 0.6 expected goals per game and only six league goals in 14 home matches, after an ACL trip to Japan with another ACL home tie coming. Jeju has had eight days of rest, scores through penalties and counters, and its three straight losses all came away against possession-heavy sides. I expect a low-possession, transitional game decided by a few chances. I'm siding with Jeju not to lose, with a draw refunded.
