Two different games, two different shapes. One is a playoff game where form and the starting pitchers matter more than the regular-season table. The other is a continental night where a home side with a modest attack meets a visitor whose back line keeps leaking.
In Daegu, this is the second game of a best-of-five series that the visitors lead after winning the opener. Samsung had the better regular season, but they come in on a poor run, with a long schedule gap and a few heavy losses. KIA have won eight of their last ten with a lineup that has been scoring five or more most nights. The starters decide the early innings. KIA's Oller has the stronger year and went six innings giving up two runs in his last outing. Samsung's Hurado is back from injury and was hit for six runs in four innings last time out. Oller's July blow-up in Daegu is the real counter-argument, but it is three months old. That's why I'm siding with KIA to win the game.
In the Champions League game, Kyoto are at home and are the favourites, though their own form is thin. They have not won in four league games and create few shots on target. Newcastle Jets are the other side of that coin: they have conceded fifteen goals in five away games and ten in their two continental matches. They are also missing two defenders, who were already out for the last match, and they are on a short turnaround after travelling. Kyoto only need one or two clean chances against that back line. The central picture is a narrow home win, with a second goal as a bonus. That's why I'm siding with Kyoto to win the match.
