Samsung is the hotter team right now, but the starting pitching points the other way. Doosan sends Wes Benjamin, who is back from a shoulder injury and has been excellent since the break, against Chris Fedick, who has been giving up runs every time out this September. Samsung also had to burn seven pitchers in its last game, so the back end of its bullpen is not fresh. That gap on the mound is what I'm backing.
Benjamin carries a 2.44 ERA for the season and 1.71 in the second half, and he already beat Samsung once on Sep 16. Fedick's season ERA of 3.21 looks fine, but it has jumped to 5.01 in September, with three or more runs allowed in each of his four starts.
Samsung's motivation is real. They have won six straight, sit three games behind KT with seven to play, and any loss ends their only path to winning the title on their own. They also beat Doosan 6-4 in the last meeting, helped by a three-run homer from Diaz in the first inning. I'm not betting on that push fading. I think the market already prices the streak, the home field and the title race, while it prices Fedick's slump and the tired bullpen less.
Doosan has already clinched a playoff spot, so it can play loose. It was still in that game late, with the score 5-4 until the sixth. A decent start from Benjamin keeps this close enough for the visitors to take it.
