Two matches, two structural readings. In Saga, a home side that has lost two foreign bigs meets a Chiba team whose frontcourt should win the glass, even though Chiba has glass problems of its own. In Ankara, Zeren and Kuzey Boru are two sides that play long volleyball against teams at their level. Neither one has shown it can close out a peer quickly.
Saga against Chiba: since Dajinsky's knee injury and Dotson's absence, Saga have been out-rebounded in every game, often badly. They have given up 39 to 52 rebounds in four of their last five games, and the replacement big, Olivier, has played short minutes with very few boards. Saga have lost seven straight and have lost by double figures in seven of their last ten. Their scoring comes from Nassir Little, who has had big nights from deep and is facing his former club.
Chiba are without Costello and Kanechika, and they are not a great rebounding team themselves. Still, Maye pulled down sixteen boards in the last game and should face much less resistance here. Randolph is back from his hamstring injury and scored 23 off the bench, which gives Chiba a second creator next to Togashi and Watanabe. The way back for Saga is a hot shooting night from Little while Chiba's starters tire after an overtime game and the trip. Even so, second chances should keep Chiba in front for most of the game. That's why I'm backing the Chiba Jets to win on the road.
Zeren against Kuzey Boru: Kuzey Boru has gone at least four sets in all seven of its league matches and has not swept anyone. Its two hitters, Szczurowska and Czyrnianska, carry a heavy load and drag matches into late sets. Zeren has been swept only by the top three. Against teams at its level, every match went four or five sets, including a five-setter at Goztepe in its last game.
Zeren's coach left during the week. With so little time, the new staff is unlikely to change the six that started at Goztepe, and both teams come in on similar rest. Sets should be traded and several should finish in the low-to-mid twenties. In eleven matches against peers, ten of these two teams' games produced a long, high-scoring night. That's why I'm on the high-scoring side in Ankara, alongside Chiba.
