This looks like a settled group meeting a team still searching for its rotation. Portland has a defined top group and has played well in both of its pre-season games. Sacramento is 0-3, missing a big man and still testing combinations. Pre-season minutes will do most of the deciding, but the side with the clearer plan has the more repeatable shape.
Portland's coach has said Lillard and Henderson start in the backcourt, with Morant coming off the bench. Lillard sat the previous game for rest specifically so he would be available here, so his absence is not the concern. Avdija has been the steadiest scorer so far, with 23 points on 9-of-13 shooting against Golden State, and Clingan gives the team a real rim protector. The Blazers beat Golden State and then thumped the London Lions with a deep rotation, shooting well in both games.
Sacramento's picture is messier. Raynaud is out with a knee injury suffered in the last game, and Sabonis is questionable after missing two straight games for an undisclosed reason, though he was a full participant in Monday's practice. The starting five against Golden State was Simmons, LaVine, Murray, Achiuwa and rookie Acuff, and Simmons is on a minutes ramp. Two of the three losses were close, with a late rally against the Lakers, so the Kings are not out of games, but there is no sign yet of a defence that holds together.
I don't want to oversell Portland's record: the wins came against a non-NBA club and a Golden State team missing starters. The Blazers also play on short rest after Monday's afternoon game, though the starters were barely stretched in that one. The game should open with both first units playing a stint, then turn into bench rotations, where Portland's deeper and more settled group has been the better scorer.
That's why I'm siding with Portland to win on the road.
