This looks like a match between a home side with plenty of volume and an away side whose defence has held up at this level. Rennes will have more of the ball and more shots, but against set, stronger defences their numbers drop and their goals have mostly come from penalties. Olympiacos have kept every Europa League opponent, Marseille away included, under one expected goal. The likely shape is a low-event game where one moment decides it.
Rennes average around eighteen shots, and they put twenty-five on OFI. The catch is who those numbers came against. Their clean home rows came against OFI and Strasbourg. Against Juventus, Paris FC and Nice they gave up big chances, and they have conceded four penalties. Their home defence is good against weaker attacks and leaky against stronger ones, and Olympiacos sit closer to the stronger group.
The key matchup is Olympiacos' compact block against Rennes' wing-backs and crossers. Olympiacos want to keep it tight, then hit long balls in behind and win corners for Chiquinho's deliveries. At Marseille they barely created anything, yet still scored before half-time, and against Sparta they held a narrow lead for long spells.
The absences lean one way. Rennes lose Lepaul, their penalty taker and best finisher, and Rongier and Ait Boudlal are reported only half fit. Samba's return helps their back line. Olympiacos' absentees were already missing during the run that built their European numbers, so what we have seen is what they bring.
I expect Rennes to have the ball and Olympiacos to stay compact, with a level or one-goal half-time. If Rennes score first, the game opens for them. If Olympiacos strike first from a set piece or a mistake, they drop deeper, as they did against Sparta and at Marseille. A goalless or one-all draw fits both styles.
That's why I'm siding with Olympiacos not to lose here, with a draw covered. The market is pricing Rennes on home advantage and league name, while the matched-level numbers put this much closer to even.
