Both sides arrive in a relegation scrap with new coaches, but the matchup turns on one thing: Gremio barely create anything away from home. Renato Portaluppi has spent the break drilling a deeper side with three holding midfielders, and he's lost Noriega and Dodi from that area. Remo will have the ball and the pressure to win. I expect a game where one end stays quiet.
Gremio's away attack has been blunt for a while, under two different coaches. In their last four league away games their expected goals were 0.57 at Botafogo, 0.45 at Vitoria, 0.48 at Bragantino and 0.41 at Atletico-MG. They have scored just 8 goals in 14 away matches and haven't won one.
Renato's first game back was the 0-0 against Palmeiras. Gremio had 28% of the ball and 7 shots, and almost nothing after the break. Training reports since then show him testing a three-man defensive midfield. Gremio have also made a long trip across the country to Belem, with two youth players called up to fill the squad.
Remo do concede a lot, but look at who scored against them: Flamengo, Bahia, Fluminense, Santos and Coritiba, mostly sides that either dominated the ball or were simply better. This time Remo are the side on the ball against a visitor sitting deep with little going forward. New coach Thiago Carpini also gets top scorer Jaja back up front.
The only meeting between these two this season ended 0-0, and the shape of this one points the same way: one team pushing, the other content to hold.
